The Orioles are -125 favorites vs the Nationals

Orioles vs Nationals Over / Under today: 10 Runs

Orioles / Nationals TV Channel: MASN | NATV

The Baltimore Orioles (-125) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+105) on May 17, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35 pm in Washington, DC.

This season, the Orioles are 20-26 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 28-17 ATS.

Orioles vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:

Orioles starting pitcher: Brandon Young 3-1, 4.16 ERA

Nationals starting pitcher: Miles Mikolas 1-3, 6.94 ERA

Orioles vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneylineOrioles-1.5 +120O 10 +100-125Nationals +1.5 -145U 10 -120+105

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 53.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:

Adley Rutschman has hit the Walks Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+14.85 Units / 38% ROI)

Gunnar Henderson has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.40 Units / 64% ROI)

Leody Taveras has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 10 away games (+11.00 Units / 110% ROI)

Taylor Ward has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.95 Units / 44% ROI)

Coby Mayo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.00 Units / 54% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:

Keibert Ruiz has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+23.00 Units / 460% ROI)

Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+12.12 Units / 38% ROI)

Miles Mikolas has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.05 Units / 43% ROI)

James Wood has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+9.95 Units / 25% ROI)

Jacob Young has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+9.15 Units / 25% ROI)

Orioles Best Bets Today:

The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 13 away games (+8.80 Units / 61% ROI)

The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 9 games (+7.10 Units / 76% ROI)

The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games (+6.45 Units / 14% ROI)

The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.00 Units / 14% ROI)

The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+0.20 Units / 3% ROI)

Nationals Best Bets Today:

The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 45 games (+17.40 Units / 32% ROI)

The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 30 games (+13.15 Units / 36% ROI)

The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 50 games (+12.70 Units / 23% ROI)

The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 30 games (+9.50 Units / 30% ROI)

The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 50 games (+9.35 Units / 16% ROI)

Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 20-26 against the Run Line (-7.1 Units / -12.23% ROI).

20-26 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.25 Units / -16.91% ROI

27-19 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.9 Units / 11.58% ROI

19-27 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.55 Units / -20.97% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 28-17 against the Run Line (+6.25 Units / 9.8% ROI).

23-23 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.25 Units / 17.67% ROI

29-15 when betting on the total runs Over for +12.8 Units / 25.32% ROI

15-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.8 Units / -33.14% ROI

Nationals vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today

Nationals vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Nationals vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Orioles are 6-1 (.857) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .633.

The Orioles are just 5-22 (.185) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.

The Orioles are just 6-10 (.375) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2025 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Orioles are just 2-99 (.020) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2025 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .045.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles

The Nationals are just 16-5 (.762) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .864.

The Nationals are just 8-13 (.381) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .539.

The Nationals are 18-3 (.857) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .720.

The Nationals are just 0-21 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.

Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends

Orioles hitters are slugging just .398 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB.

Orioles hitters are slugging just .151 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB.

Orioles hitters have struck out in 24% of their PA’s against RHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

The Orioles are batting just .263 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB.

Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends

The Nationals are batting just .180 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB.

Nationals hitters are slugging .435 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB.

The Nationals have scored 2.09 runs per game (96/46) in late innings this season — best in MLB.

The Nationals have scored 86 runs in late innings this season — most in MLB.

Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends

Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 7.01 (86.0 IP) against division opponents this season — highest in MLB.

Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 4.77 (405.2 IP) this season — 5th highest in MLB.

Orioles pitchers have walked 11% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB.

Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.59 (188.1 IP) on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Nationals pitchers this season — lowest in MLB.

The Nationals have allowed 6.19 runs per game (130/21) at home this season — highest in MLB.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

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