Texas State baseball claimed the No. 6 seed in the Sun Belt Tournament after sweeping Marshall this past weekend to close out the regular season.
The Bobcats have been on a roll for the past two weeks, winning seven of their last eight games and morphing back into a dangerous home run-hitting offense. They’re ranked 44th in RPI and, in any other year, would have a very good chance of earning an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.
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The issue is that the Sun Belt has three other teams ranked above Texas State in RPI, with Southern Miss at 13th and Coastal Carolina at 24th. The Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns defeated the Chanticleers to close out the regular season, which pushed them to 40th. Baseball America has the Bobcats as one of the last four teams in and D1Baseball has them as one of the last four out.
The NCAA handed out three at-large bids to Sun Belt teams in 2023, but Texas State has a lot of work to do if it’s to extend its season past the conference tournament.
Here’s how it could happen:
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Win the Sun Belt Tournament
Starting with the obvious. The winner of the Sun Belt Tournament in Montgomery, Ala., earns an automatic NCAA bid, but that’s far easier said than done.
Texas State opens Wednesday morning against No. 3 seed Appalachian State. In the double-elimination style bracket, the Bobcats will need to win four games from Wednesday to Sunday to claim the championship.
It’s a tall order for any team, and especially so for Texas State, which has a thin bullpen and inconsistent starters. Wade Cooper and Cade Smith have a 6.18 and 4.55 earned run average in five starts, respectively. Ryan Markwardt threw six shutout innings against Marshall last Friday, but faces stiffer competition in the bracket. The relievers are questionable aside from Jesus Tovar, Dylan Kerbow, Alizaeh Gutierrez, Kyle Froehlich and Alec Beversdorf.
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It’s not impossible, but against the best the Sun Belt has to offer, the Bobcats’ arms are unlikely to hold up — especially over the course of four or five games.
Texas State catcher Austin Munguia (42 celebrates a home run by catcher Rashawn Galloway (7) during the game against Louisiana at Bobcat Ballpark on Saturday, March. 21, 2026 in San Marcos, Texas.
Aaron E. Martinez/Austin American-Statesman
Defeat Coastal Carolina/Louisiana
If Texas State gets past Appalachian State, it could face No. 2 Coastal Carolina, a top-25 team by RPI. This would be a golden opportunity for the Bobcats to add another quality win to their résumé. The Chanticleers have been on a skid as of late. Once ranked among the top 10 teams in the nation, they lost their final two Sun Belt series to Old Dominion and, as mentioned, Louisiana.
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Another potential outcome is Texas State beating Louisiana following a win over Appalachian State, assuming Louisiana matches up with and defeats Coastal Carolina. The Bobcats would then hold a 4-0 season record over the Ragin’ Cajuns and have another win over a top-50 RPI team.
This wouldn’t guarantee anything for Texas State. Its chances would still be dependent on how the rest of the bracket developed. But it might be enough for the Bobcats to earn an at-large bid even if they fail to make the finals.
Hope Louisiana loses to Marshall
If Louisiana falls to Marshall in Tuesday’s single-elimination first-round game, Texas State’s chances of earning an at-large bid would likely skyrocket.
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In this scenario, being eliminated from the Sun Belt Tournament without winning a single game might be too much to overcome. But say the Bobcats defeat the Mountaineers, lose to the Chanticleers, and are eliminated in the following game. Barring any other upsets, it wouldn’t be shocking if Texas State leaped Louisiana for the second at-large bid.