Today I will join thousands of other bloggers, websites, pundits, etc. in making my so-called “expert” predictions for the baseball season that begins tomorrow. If you have been here at BCB for the last 20 years, you’ll find this prediction format familiar — and yes, you’ll find most of this introductory text familiar too (copy/paste being a useful tool). For those of you new to this site, read on.
I started this format more than 30 years ago, when I was passing out my annual predictions to any of my friends who were willing to read them either with or without scoffing, because I found this method both more interesting and challenging to do than traditional predictions. Even more so, if you’re here I don’t need to insult your intelligence by telling you who the ballclubs’ best hitters, pitchers, etc. are. You already know. Instead, you’ll find a pithy word or phrase describing the hitting, pitching, defense and intangibles of the 30 contenders for October glory.
I’m also not going to “predict” award winners. How hard would it be for me to sit here clacking away on a keyboard and be master of the obvious by telling you that Shohei Ohtani is a top choice to win another MVP award or that Paul Skenes could win the NL Cy Young? Just before the 2024 season started, would you have predicted that Steven Vogt would be the AL Manager of the Year? Last spring, did you predict Pat Murphy would be NL Manager of the Year? Nope. In fact, this 2024 preseason awards prediction article said Craig Counsell would be NL Manager of the Year. Whoops.
And in any case, anyone using the search function here, or Google, can come back here in October and tell me how wrong I was.
Here are the predictions I made for the 2024 season. I got only one of the six division winners (Dodgers) correct, and only four of the 12 postseason teams. And that Orioles/Braves World Series? Oh, well.
In last year’s prediction article, 13 percent of the 688 people who voted in the poll said the Cubs would miss the postseason. Congratulations, you were the correct ones.
Without further ado, my picks for 2025! I’ll have more specifically on the Cubs 2025 season coming up tomorrow, and our annual preseason BCB staff roundtable will also post tomorrow.
NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
Hitting: Speedy
Pitching: Always
Defense: Excellent
Intangibles: The return of Ronald Acuña Jr.
2) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (Wild card)
Hitting: Lots of DH types
Pitching: Returning
Defense: Who needs defense?
Intangibles: Lots of postseason experience
3) NEW YORK METS (Wild card)
Hitting: Juan Soto
Pitching: Good enough
Defense: Very good
Intangibles: They’re the Mets
Hitting: Young
Pitching: Returning
Defense: Excellent
Intangibles: Sleeper team with some very good young players
Hitting: Who …
Pitching: are…
Defense: these guys?
Intangibles: If the Marlins win a game and no one is there to see it, does it count?
NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
1) CHICAGO CUBS
Hitting: Improved
Pitching: Watch for those Wrigley winds!
Defense: Very good
Intangibles: They seem in win-now mode
Hitting: Some new guys
Pitching: Pretty deep
Defense: Good
Intangibles: Spiffy new manager
Hitting: Lost a top hitter (Adames)
Pitching: Lost their closer (Williams)
Defense: Acceptable
Intangibles: ♬♪♫ “Zing! Boom! Tarrarel!” ♬♪♫ (Also, what’s a “tarrarel”?)
Hitting: Mostly the same
Pitching: Returning
Defense: Very good
Intangibles: Waiting for Yadi to become manager
Hitting: Uh, next question?
Pitching: Could be among the league’s best
Defense: Decent
Intangibles: What is this team doing?
NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST
Hitting: Expensive
Pitching: Expensive
Defense: Expensive
Intangibles: This Onion headline sums things up.
2) ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (Wild card)
Hitting: Well, they have some
Pitching: Improved
Defense: Good
Intangibles: Trying to get back to the WS for the second time in three years
Hitting: Patched together
Pitching: Up in the air
Defense: Fair
Intangibles: There’s just something not quite right here
Hitting: Interesting mix
Pitching: Old
Defense: Good enough
Intangibles: Buster Posey’s first year as an executive
Hitting: Well, sure, I guess
Pitching: Nope
Defense: Nope
Intangibles: Weirdest ownership/management in MLB
AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST
Hitting: Solid
Pitching: Injured
Defense: Well…
Intangibles: The pressure to win here is intense
2) BALTIMORE ORIOLES (Wild card)
Hitting: Returning
Pitching: A little bit of this, a little bit of that
Defense: Good
Intangibles: Did almost nothing this offseason
Hitting: Anonymous
Pitching: Anonymous
Defense: Anonymous
Intangibles: How will they do playing at a Spring Training park?
Hitting: Expensive
Pitching: New!
Defense: Interesting
Intangibles: Definitely made some moves to improve
Hitting: Spiffy new Santander
Pitching: Max Scherzer? Uh, okay
Defense: Okay
Intangibles: Whiffed on almost every big-name free agent
AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL
Hitting: Wing and a prayer
Pitching: Much better than you think
Defense: Average
Intangibles: Can they sustain their great 24-10 finish to ‘24?
2) KANSAS CITY ROYALS (Wild card)
Hitting: Best player in baseball no one’s heard of
Pitching: Surprisingly good
Defense: Very good
Intangibles: Best shortstop in the league (see above)
Hitting: Returning
Pitching: They have some
Defense: Excellent
Intangibles: Always seem to do better than you expect
Hitting: Did not make…
Pitching: … any significant moves …
Defense: … all offseason.
Intangibles: And suddenly, there are three better teams in this division
Hitting: What…
Pitching: … is this team …
Defense: doing?
Intangibles: You don’t really want to know
AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST
Hitting: Powerful
Pitching: Questionable
Defense: Good
Intangibles: Could finish first… or last
2) SEATTLE MARINERS (Wild card)
Hitting: The same
Pitching: Mostly the same
Defense: Good enough
Intangibles: Hey, look! Here’s Miles Mastrobuoni!
Hitting: Patched together
Pitching: Lots of question marks
Defense: Okay
Intangibles: Lots of changes. Will that matter?
Hitting: Lots of signings, but…
Pitching: … will any of them matter?
Defense: Anthony Rendon is already out for the year
Intangibles: Have not had a winning season since 2015
Hitting: The worst …
Pitching: … ownership in …
Defense: … baseball.
Intangibles: How will they do playing at a Minor League park?
Postseason predictions
First round byes: Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Rangers
Wild-card series: Cubs defeat Diamondbacks, Phillies defeat Mets, Tigers defeat Orioles, Royals defeat Mariners
Division series: Dodgers defeat Cubs, Braves defeat Phillies, Yankees defeat Royals, Rangers defeat Tigers
Championship series: Braves defeat Dodgers, Yankees defeat Rangers
World Series: Braves defeat Yankees
Poll
Where will the Cubs finish in 2025?
This poll is closed
7%
World Series champions
(39 votes)
1%
NL champions, but lose the World Series
(8 votes)
17%
Win a division series, but lose the NLCS
(95 votes)
24%
Win a wild card series as NL Central champions, but lose in a division series
(135 votes)
6%
Win a wild card series as a wild card team, but lose in a division series
(38 votes)
18%
Lose a wild card series
(102 votes)
23%
Miss the postseason
(131 votes)
548 votes total