The Cleveland Guardians bounced back from a 3-0 Saturday loss to the Phillies with a 3-1 win on Sunday thanks to a good showing from Parker Messick, who struck out 6 in 5.2 innings while giving up 0 earned runs despite 5 hits. The win marked Cleveland’s 11th in their last 13 games, as they return home from a 7-game road trip to welcome the Washington Nationals – who just stole a low-scoring series from the Braves on the road. 

Zack Littell will take the ball for Washington in strong form with a 2.55 May ERA, but 3 of those starts were at home. On the road, he has allowed 12 earned runs via 22 hits, 8 home runs and 6 walks in just 17.2 innings, all while striking out just 5 batters in 4 games against the Marlins, Mets, Brewers and Phillies. Cleveland will counter with Tanner Bibee, who is still looking for his first victory. Despite not having a win on his resume, he has pitched decently well, and his 3.75 ERA is supported by a 3.88 xERA and 4.11 xFIP. Furthermore, he’s actually been pretty good at home, boasting a 2.10 ERA with just 8 earned runs allowed in 34.1 innings. Run support has been a big issue for Bibee, as he surrendered 2 or fewer runs in half his losses. 

There’s no reason to go against Cleveland’s hot run in this spot. Despite Bibee’s struggles from a win-loss perspective, Littell is not a pitcher I want to back on the road, while the Nats bullpen has allowed the 2nd-most earned runs this season. This is a tough spot for Washington anyway, coming off a series win on the road over a division rival and the best team in baseball. On the road again Monday, this time for an interleague matchup, I’m expecting a sloppy performance from the Nats all around. 

Nationals vs Guardians prediction: Cleveland Guardians ML (-174) at the time of publishing. Playable to -190. 

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