The Tampa Bay Rays (28-27) visit the Houston Astros (30-25) for the first game of a 4-game series Thursday at Daikin Park. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Rays vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Rays lead 2-1
Tampa Bay has won 7 of its last 8 games after handling the Minnesota Twins 5-0 as a -125 home favorite Wednesday. 3B Junior Caminero launched a 2-run homer, while 1B Jonathan Aranda scored twice for the Rays.
Houston has won each of its last 4 games after completing a 2-game sweep over the A’s with a 5-3 win as a -134 home favorite Wednesday. C Victor Caratini and DH Zach Dezenzo each drove in 2 runs, with Caratini delivering a 2-run single and Dezenzo adding a solo homer during the Astros’ 3-run seventh inning that gave them the lead.
Rays at Astros projected starters
RHP Shane Baz vs. RHP Ryan Gusto
Baz (4-3, 4.94 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.39 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 through 54 2/3 innings.
Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 4 K in 3-1 home victory vs. Toronto Blue Jays SaturdayCareer vs. Astros: 0-1, 3.65 ERA (12 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 13 H, 3 BB, 11 K in 2 starts, both in 2024
Gusto (3-2, 4.58 ERA) makes his seventh start. The rookie has a 1.53 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 through 35 1/3 innings.
Last start: No-decision, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 5-3 home defeat vs. Seattle Mariners FridayHas never faced Rays
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Rays at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:24 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): Rays -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Astros -115 (bet $115 to win $100)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays -1.5 (+155) | Astros +1.5 (-190)Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)Rays at Astros picks and predictionsPrediction
Rays 4, Astros 3
BET RAYS (-105).
With both teams entering Thursday’s matchup and series opener on a hot streak, as well as both being 7-3 over their last 10 games, this game will come down to the pitching.
While both pitchers enter with ERAs above 4.00, Baz has the advantage. In his last start, he allowed just 1 run through 5 2/3 innings, and the Rays have won 2 of his last 3 starts.
For Gusto, he is still unproven as a starter, with 6 of his 12 career appearances coming out of the bullpen. He has lasted at least 5 innings just twice in his career, which will force the Astros to rely on their bullpen and put them on their heels.
PASS.
The moneyline has better value on the Rays.
BET UNDER 8 (-105).
The Rays are 8-2-1 to the Under in their last 11 games. They have scored 3 or fewer runs in 6 of their last 10 games, while allowing 2 or fewer in 5 of their last 6.
The Astros are 7-3-1 to the Under in their last 11 games. They have allowed 3 or fewer runs in 8 of their last 10 games, including each of their last 4.
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