The Toronto Blue Jays are -160 moneyline favorites in the rubber match of their set against the Miami Marlins

Kevin Gausman’s elite command provides the Blue Jays a distinct pitching advantage

Read below for the my Marlins vs Blue Jays prediction, picks, updated odds and betting splits

It’s the rubber match of a 3-game interleague set between the visiting Miami Marlins and Toronto Blue Jays.

After crushing the Marlins Tuesday, the Blue Jays are the sportsbooks’ pick Wednesday to win the series in the MLB odds.

First pitch goes at 1:07pm ET from Rogers Centre in Toronto, with MLB TV and ESPN Unlimited providing the broadcast coverage.

Marlins vs Blue Jays Prediction

Best Bet: Blue Jays ML (-160 at bet365)

Looking at the MLB probable pitchers Wednesday, and Toronto has the advantage with veteran Kevin Gausman on the mound.

The righty brings steady command to the rubber. His 2.85 FIP indicates he is pitching even better than his traditional metrics suggest. Over his last 10 outings, he averages 5.80 innings per start while issuing just 1.55 walks per nine innings.

Conversely, Eury Perez offers raw velocity but battles command issues.

In his last 10 starts, Perez carries a 5.05 ERA and walks 4.70 batters per nine innings. If he struggles to locate his pitches against a disciplined Blue Jays lineup, the Marlins could be forced into their bullpen early.

Pitching Matchup: Perez vs Gausman

The Blue Jays boast a winning 16-13 record at home, backed by an efficient offense that generates 4.52 runs per game and a .716 OPS. Conversely, the Marlins have struggled mightily on the road, limping to an 8-15 record away from their home ballpark.

The Marlins’ run production sees a noticeable dip in hostile territory, averaging just 4.09 runs per game with a sluggish .658 OPS.

One of the few areas where the Marlins hold a clear edge is on the basepaths. They average a staggering 1.26 stolen bases per game, heavily outpacing the Blue Jays’ conservative 0.52 mark.

However, reaching base is a tall task against a Blue Jays pitching staff that owns a collective 3.83 ERA. The home staff consistently misses bats, striking out 9.33 batters per nine innings.

Both teams hit the ball with nearly identical average exit velocities, but the Blue Jays turn that contact into runs far more efficiently.

I recommend backing the Blue Jays due to Gausman’s reliability. He holds a 3.23 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over 64.0 innings. The Marlins are just 6-18 as underdogs this season, making the home favorite the analytical play.

MIA Marlins vs TOR Blue Jays Prop Picks

Player Prop Pick: Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-137 at DraftKings)
Gausman averages 8.58 strikeouts per nine innings. The Marlins strike out frequently, making this a high-value proposition for the veteran right-hander.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr Over 1.5 Total Bases (-101 at DraftKings)
This is obviously contingent on Vladdy making his way back into the lineup, after leaving the opener when he took an inside pitch to his right elbow. He missed Tuesday’s win. Guerrero Jr hits .287 with a .758 OPS. If he plays through his recent injury, backing him to record two bases against a vulnerable Perez is a strong straight bet.

Marlins vs Blue Jays Odds & Betting Splits

The graphic above shows the best available odds, which are subject to change. Be sure to use the BetMGM promo code to bet on Marlins vs Blue Jays or any other MLB game.

A Miami win as the underdog pays at nice +136 odds at FanDuel, while Toronto is a -160 favorite on the moneyline at bet365. Taking the Jays on the runline offers better +136 odds, if they are able to win by at least two runs. The Marlins staying within two runs pays at -160 odds.

The total is set at 7.5 runs, with the Over paying at -115 odds, and the Under at +100/

There’s plenty of variance in the MLB public betting splits. The public is split down the middle on who will win, with an equal 50% of money bet on both teams, though 77% of the bets were on Toronto.

The runline is a totally different story, as it’s all Blue Jays: a whopping 98% of the money and 84% of all bets are on the home team winning by at least two runs.

The betting public likes the Over, with 74% of the bets and 75% of the money betting the Marlins and Jays cross 7.5 runs.