Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and best bet for today’s baseball game between the Boston Red Sox and the Atlanta Braves.

Atlanta arrives in Boston with the authority of a club that has traveled like a contender. The Braves are 37-18, an MLB-best 20-8 away from home, and Tuesday’s 7-6 win at Fenway had the texture of a team shaking itself awake after two quiet offensive nights. Boston is 22-31 and just 8-18 at Fenway, but the Red Sox made that game uncomfortable deep into the ninth, finishing with nine hits, three HR and the tying runs in scoring position before Atlanta finally escaped. Warm late-May air changes the tenor of a game in this park. The Monster turns firm contact into instant pressure, right-center rewards line drives that stay up, and a total of 8 asks whether both lineups can produce one crooked inning rather than nine innings of sustained pressure. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Boston Red Sox and the Atlanta Braves.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Connelly Early gives Atlanta the first and more obvious opening. His 3.33 ERA and 1.19 WHIP are respectable enough on the surface, yet the contact trail behind them is much louder: nine HR allowed, seven over his last five starts, 1.5 HR/9, a 4.72 xERA, 90.8 mph average exit velocity allowed, a 42.8% hard-hit rate, a 13.2% barrel rate and a .340 xwOBA. Fenway is an unforgiving place for that profile when the fastball leaks over the plate or the changeup stays high. Early has also been shakier at home, carrying a 4.43 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in that split, with walks adding traffic before the extra-base contact arrives. Bryce Elder is a much cleaner assignment for Boston at 4-2 with a 1.97 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 60 strikeouts and only a 3.7% barrel rate allowed, but the Red Sox already put together three runs and seven hits against him across eight innings earlier this month. Boston’s job is not to solve Elder completely. It is to keep enough heat on him for the full game to reach the lesser parts of both pitching staffs.

The Braves have the steadier run base because the middle of their order matches the park and the pitcher. Ronald Acuña Jr. at the top gives Atlanta immediate speed and pressure ahead of Matt Olson, whose profile is built for this kind of matchup: .263/.343/.554, 15 HR, 17 doubles, 44 RBI, an .897 OPS, 93.0 mph average exit velocity, 51.0% hard-hit rate, 15.5% barrel rate and a .377 xwOBA. Michael Harris II enters as the hottest hitter in the game after going 4-for-4 with a double, HR, three RBI and two runs Tuesday, and his last-seven burst has been enormous: .387/.406/.806, 12 hits, four HR, eight RBI and seven runs. Austin Riley’s surface line has lagged behind his standards, but the ball is still coming off his bat with enough force to matter at Fenway: 90.9 mph average exit velocity, 45.7% hard-hit rate and a 10.0% barrel rate. Ozzie Albies adds switch-hit balance, Ha-Seong Kim lengthens the lineup with contact and speed, and Atlanta’s .294 average with runners in scoring position keeps this from being a purely homer-dependent run case.

Boston’s case is more delicate, though it has gained real color over the last week. Jarren Duran belongs on the front of this game because he is the clearest symbol of the Red Sox offense stirring again: leadoff slot, first-inning HR Tuesday, and a .286/.400/.714 last-seven line with three HR, eight RBI, five runs, five walks and a steal. The season slash is still carrying early damage, but the quality underneath it is stronger than the average: 90.2 mph average exit velocity, 40.5% hard-hit rate and a 10.9% barrel rate. Ceddanne Rafaela has been one of Boston’s better recent stories, homering Tuesday and carrying a .302 average, .362 OBP and .893 OPS across his last 25 games with a plate appearance. Wilyer Abreu brings left-handed contact quality at 90.0 mph average exit velocity, 42.3% hard-hit rate, 11.6% barrel rate and a .347 xwOBA. Willson Contreras gives the lineup its best middle-order force with 11 HR, 33 RBI, a near-.900 OPS, a 16.0% barrel rate, .393 wOBA, .397 xwOBA, and a last-10 run of .410 with 16 hits, three HR and 10 RBI.

Braves vs. Red Sox pick, best bet

The number is still anchored by Elder’s excellence, Atlanta’s superior bullpen and the Braves’ slightly shorter lineup without Drake Baldwin. Sandy León batting ninth removes some of the lower-order thump that would make Atlanta’s team total over 4.5 feel more comfortable, and Elder’s sinker-slider mix can turn Boston’s left-handed pockets into ground balls when he is living below the barrel. Even with those concerns, Over 8 is a more complete wager than a juiced Braves team total. Atlanta should put Early under pressure with Olson, Harris, Acuña, Riley and Albies, and Boston’s top five has enough current form to contribute rather than leave the whole ticket on the Braves. The bullpen contrast adds more late scoring oxygen: Atlanta’s relief group has been strong with a 2.84 ERA over the last seven days, but several high-leverage arms have worked recently, while Boston’s bullpen has posted a 6.60 ERA over that same stretch and still has to build a bridge through the middle innings before Aroldis Chapman becomes relevant.

Best bet: Braves-Red Sox Over 8. The play is strongest at 8 and loses a lot of charm at 8.5 without a better price. Elder can keep Boston from turning this into a true Fenway avalanche, and Early can survive longer than the contact profile suggests if Atlanta’s lower third strands Olson or Harris after early traffic. The fuller picture still points toward runs: Atlanta’s power meets a loud-contact lefty in warm air, Boston’s top half is finally carrying some charge, and Fenway is the wrong place for a vulnerable bullpen to protect a one-run script for three innings.

Final score projection: Braves 6, Red Sox 4.

Best bet: Red Sox vs. Braves o8.0 total runs (-110)

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