Bryan Armetta analyzes his two favorite home run props across all of today’s six-game MLB slate.

With just six games on tap, Thursday’s MLB home run props are a bit tricky. With so few players taking the field, it’s slim pickings for most bettors. Still, that doesn’t mean there isn’t any value to be had here. In fact, a limited amount of matchups allows us to really dive into the numbers. Besides, plenty of big bats are expected to take the diamond throughout today’s modest slate. Two players stand out in particular as names that are capable of taking one deep.

Below are my two favorite picks from Thursday’s games to hit a home run.

Top MLB Home Run Props today

Pete Alonso to hit a home run (+333)

It hasn’t been an ideal start to Pete Alonso’s tenure in Baltimore. Over 56 games with his new club, the Polar Bear is slashing .232/.318/.435 at the plate with ten home runs. Granted, it’s reasonable to expect the former Mets slugger to end the season with at least 30 homers. He’s already clubbed six dingers during the month of May despite his overall offensive struggles. Per Savant, Alonso ranks within the 99th percentile in average exit velocity (95.0 MPH) and 97th percentile in hard-hit rate (55.2%).

On Thursday, the Orioles will face Toronto’s Patrick Corbin on the mound. This season, the southpaw has notched a 3.86 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 32 strikeouts (6.5 K/9). The veteran, once a member of the Nationals, has plenty of history against Alonso. Unsurprisingly, they’ve faced each other for a total of 52 at-bats. During those meetings, Pete is hitting .365 with five jacks. Without the ability to consistently generate whiffs, it’s easy to envision Corbin giving up some hard contact tonight. That’s especially true when facing one of the sport’s most intimidating hitters.

Brandon Lowe to hit a home run (+363)

The Pirates have been one of baseball’s biggest surprises so far. Pittsburgh’s 29-27 record has been made possible in large part by a surprisingly good lineup. The team is averaging 4.89 runs per game this season, fifth-most in the majors. Key to this offensive success has been trade acquisition Brandon Lowe. The two-time All-Star, when healthy, has always been a dangerous hitter. Over 50 games, the second baseman is slashing .269/.355/.560 with a team-leading 14 home runs and 36 RBIs.

Although Lowe doesn’t possess Alonso’s elite power, his numbers aren’t a fluke. The 31-year-old ranks within the top 79th percentile in expected slugging (.530), barrel rate (13.5%), and hard-hit rate (46.8%). To boot, he’s done quite well in this matchup before. Lowe has hammed three homers over five games against the Cubs this season. That includes a three-run dinger on Wednesday night. In comparison, Chicago hurler Colin Rea doesn’t inspire much confidence. The eighth-year pro is on the hook for a 4.83 ERA and 1.37 WHIP this season. He’s within the league’s bottom tenth percentile in average exit velocity (91.7) and barrel rate (12.3%). Don’t be shocked if Pittsburgh’s slugger takes one deep at PNC Park on Thursday.