Let’s not be overdramatic since it’s only the end of May, but I believe this weekend’s St. Louis Cardinals versus Chicago Cubs clash at Busch Stadium is more important than we probably think all because of one word – trajectory.

As a lifelong St. Louis Cardinals fan I have somehow obtained an alarming number of Chicago Cubs fans in my friend group. Please don’t hold that against me or them. From an intel standpoint, it’s enabled me to find out what our arch enemy fanbase is thinking and right now there’s big concern which translates into a great opportunity for the St. Louis Cardinals.

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The Chicago Cubs began the 2026 season on a tear with one of the best offenses in baseball

If you look at just the first 30 games of the 2026 campaign, the Chicago Cubs were raking. They were top 5 in nearly all of the offensive categories with a .354 OBP during the first month averaging around 5.5 runs per game. Everyone in the NL Central were looking up at them with a 20-13 record at one point, but then May arrived and the Cubs…flatlined. The torrid bats went silent with Chicago ranking 14th in MLB with a .242 average in May and an on-base percentage of only .333, but on-base plus slugging wasn’t awful at .720. Overall, the Chicago Cubs have a win-loss record of 10-16 in May losing 10 of the last 11 games. My Cubs friends see this as troubling. I see this as a Cardinals opportunity.

The St. Louis Cardinals have their own concerns since May 1

In Cardinals nation, we know that our young St. Louis team has overachieved what most thought possible in 2026. May has not been kind to St. Louis, though. As of today, the Cardinals have a win-loss record of 11-12 since May 1. If I had to pinpoint one game that was a turning point (in the wrong direction), it was the May 10 game when the Cardinals were one strike away from beating the San Diego Padres then Riley O’Brien proved himself vulnerable. The other heartbreaker was the second game of the doubleheader on May 23 when Cincinnati beat St. Louis 7-6 in extras. After this week’s sweep at the hands of the Milwaukee Brewers, the Cardinals have lost 4 games in a row heading into the weekend series versus Chicago.

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If you look at the month of May so far, the St. Louis Cardinals offense has become the very definition of “meh”. Team batting average for May is a meager .238 which ranks 16th in MLB. The bottom of the St. Louis Cardinals batting order has become an even bigger liability this month and the team barely mustered any RISP opportunities versus Milwaukee at all.

My point is that both the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs have an opportunity to change their trajectory this weekend at Busch Stadium. A dominant weekend by either team could make all the difference as we get into the summer months. What’s the St. Louis Cardinals pitching plans for the Cubs series? As of today, it looks like St. Louis will start Kyle Leahy Friday night, Andre Pallante Saturday night and Matthew Liberatore Sunday night. I haven’t seen any official Chicago Cubs lineups yet, but I think Friday night’s pitcher is Shota Imanaga while Ben Brown will start for the tiny bears Saturday night and Jordan Wicks Sunday night.

This might defy my goal of not being overdramatic, but this weekend’s St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs series reminds me of the end of Rocky II where both Rocky Balboa and Apollo Creed have fallen to the canvas and the winner is the one who gets up first. No, the Cardinals and Cubs are not playing for a world championship this weekend, but symbolically the team that gets up off of the mat first this weekend might just be the one who remains competitive into the summer. Will the St. Louis Cardinals be Balboa or Creed? Let’s hope our “tarps off” crowd gets that Rocky chant (and our bats) going this weekend.