The Chicago Cubs continue their freefall and are quickly putting themselves into a deep, deep hole from which they may not be able top emerge.
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On Monday, the struggling North Siders could only muster one run in a 2-1 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. The defeat was the team’s ninth in a row and their thirteenth in their last fifteen games.
Team slumps happen and it IS early in the season, but the Cubs are now starting to put themselves in a place where this run of poor play will most definitely matter. The standings show that, as does the real-time projection of the playoff picture.
Sinking in the standings
May 12, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Chicago Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong (4) reacts after an out against the Atlanta Braves in the third inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images
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As things sit now, they are in third place in the NL Central Division—behind the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals—holding on to a half-game lead over the third place Cincinnati Reds and a one game lead over the Pirates. With a loss on Tuesday, they could be tied for last in the division. And while they’d still be less than five games out of first, they’d have to crawl over every other team in the division to get there. That’s not a great spot to be in. If the season were to end today, the Cubs wouldn’t even be a playoff team.
This wouldn’t be as much of an issue if the team displayed signs of snapping out of this funk and/or had some firm prospects for turning things around down the line. But as the offense flatlines collectively and as the injury-rocked starting rotation fails before our eyes (except for Ben Brown), the realization also begins to set in that there is no cavalry riding in to save the day. Except for the hope that injured pitchers will come back and be productive, the Cubs have to rely entirely on these same flatlining players to turn things around on their own.
Cubs not projected to make playoffs
Apr 11, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs manager Craig Counsell looks on while taking questions from the media prior to a game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images
And the projected playoff odds reflect this rough reality.
Per Fangraphs, Chicago, with a projected 49% probability of making the playoffs, is now more likely NOT to see postseason play. When it comes to winning their division, the respected baseball statistics and analysis site is even more pessimistic, giving the team just a 16.8% chance of taking the NL Central, behind the Brewers (52.9%) and Pirates (18.6%). Fangraphs, by the way, gave the Cubs a 48.2% probability of winning the division right before the start of the season.
Yes, these are only projections skewed heavily by recent poor performance and they will change when/if the Cubs get out of this extended slump. But they do give a good indication of where the team stands right now in comparison to the rest of the division/league. It’s not a pretty picture.
So, what’s the answer to turning things around?
Heck if anyone knows.
Even manager Craig Counsell seems to be stumped, only able to offer generalities.
“We gotta play better,” Counsell told reporters following yet another loss on Monday. “We gotta swing the bats better, we gotta pitch better, we need more guys contributing to good stuff. As a coaching staff, we gotta figure out a way to get the players there. Offensively, we are equipped to be way more consistent than this and way better than this. We need to show it.”
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