The Cubs also lost Shōta Imanaga during that stretch of games. The Cubs have answered just about every challenge. I fully expect them to play a competitive game today.
I wish I’d gone just a little harder with this projection. Really, I don’t need any back pats. But I did want to start out with the point that this team just keeps answering challenges. Time after time, I’ll write that this team needs something. Be it a starter going deep or whatever. In this one, I noted that this was likely to be a challenging day for the Cubs offense and that they needed their pitching to keep them in the game.
The Cubs offense actually did pretty good at creating traffic. They just couldn’t cash in early enough to support Ben Brown who was absolutely dealing. Brown had probably the second strongest appearance of his career. He threw seven no-hit innings last year in Milwaukee in 2024. In this one, he faced 20 batters, allowed one hit and one walk, striking out nine. That followed a perfect first from Drew Pomeranz and then preceded perfect innings from Brad Keller and Daniel Palencia.
I saw a stat that had the Cubs have had the best bullpen ERA in baseball, April 19 to present. I did no research to fact check that. The Cubs also lost Shōta Imanaga during that stretch of games. Now Ben Brown’s effort today and a game that basically featured eight scoreless relief innings definitely helps. The opener can definitely make those stats weird. Brown’s appearance today and the first appearance of Cade Horton were both the equivalent of starts.
No one is here telling you that everything has been fixed. Caleb Thielbar ($2.75M), Brad Keller ($1.5M), Drew Pomeranz (waiver trade), Genesis Cabrera (free agent after clearing waivers) and Daniel Palencia (less than a year of service time) have stabilized the pen. For now anyway. Ryan Brasier ($4.5M) is down there as well, another guy who was forced out with the Dodgers. Chris Flexen is down there as well. Another guy who was squeezed out. That is the same story with virtually all of them. So Ryan Pressly is the only one that took a serious amount of cash to obtain. This is the Cubs bullpen plan year after year. It has been for nearly a decade now.
No one liked that strategy way back in 2015 and it hasn’t gotten significantly well received through the years, despite how generally well it has worked. It is one of my classic glass half full, glass half empty situation. It has consistently resulted in good results. Even two years ago when things didn’t straighten out until summertime, they still ended up putting up decent numbers. Of course, it collapsed at the end because they all got four guys going in the right direction and a promising team fell short. It has worked. BUT, in an era where bullpens are increasingly dominant, particularly among the best teams, it has not been a weapon.
It’s unlikely to become a weapon this year either. That said, this team can win. That bullpen can do the job. They need to get Porter Hodge right. Hopefully, Daniel Palencia can cover things well enough that there is no urgency to rush Hodge back until he is right. Also, the Cubs need to get Ryan Pressly as right as they can. He’s on the roster. They need to pick spots to use him and get what they can from him. Hopefully, he eventually settled in nicely to like a third or fourth reliever spot.
More than anything, the key is for the bullpen to be effective enough that there is no distraction from the biggest need, starting pitching. That’s really the same thing I would say about Matt Shaw. Be good enough so that there is no confusion. The bulk of whatever financial and/or prospect capital this team has needs to be directed towards adding a real quality starter. They can gap fill in the bullpen and with the bench.
June is a big month for positioning. Hopefully, this team can position itself as a legitimate contender for the top spot in the NL. That’ll create the largest amount of impetus to improve the team heading to the deadline. Alas, we are still a good distance away from that. It is moving time. They are positioned well right now. Now firm it up.
Pitch Counts:
Reds: 150, 34 BF
Cubs: 108, 29 BF
I’ve said in the past that 135 is a decent target. 150 isn’t horrible. Except that this was only eight innings. So despite the really good result of two runs over eight, the Reds had to work really hard. They allowed eight hits and five walks. or good measure, they struck out eight. But all of that took a lot of pitches. The only thing that kept them from disaster was three double plays and an outfield assist. Graham Ashcraft threw 29 pitches in this one and might not be available for them on Sunday. They should otherwise have a full pen available though.
On the Cubs side, they just missed a combined Maddux. Not surprising when they issued one hit, one walk. 11 strikeouts ran some pitches. But they only faced two batters over the minimum. This was a masterful outing. The back of the pen did a really great job Friday keeping the game close and not burning the pen at the same time. Then the bullpen was ruthlessly efficient in this one. With an off day Monday, it’s not hard to imagine every single Cubs reliever is available. Chris Flexen off of two innings Friday is the only guy I can imagine you would think twice about other than some health related issue.
Three Stars:
Ben Brown was the star of this one. I detailed it above. I don’t do this, but he should be the Player of the Game in this one. He shut down this game.
Kyle Tucker had two hits, and was hit by a pitch and he scored a run.
Seiya Suzuki had a huge double, drove in a run and also drew a walk.
Too many honorable mentions. Everyone who pitched, PCA (two walks and a huge diving catch), Dansby Swanson for the second run driven in on a tough day at the plate for him, Ian Happ two doubles and a run scored. Such is the nature of these razor thin games. Every contribution matters.
Game 58, May 31: Cubs 2, Reds 0 (36-22)
Fangraphs
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
Superhero: Ben Brown (.384). 6 IP, 20 BF, H, BB, 0 ER, 9 K
Hero: Seiya Suzuki (.185). 1-3, 2B, BB, RBI
Sidekick: Brad Keller (.103). IP, 3 BF
THREE GOATS:
Billy Goat: Carson Kelly (-.252). 0-3, BB, 2 DP
Goat: Justin Turner (-.184). 0-3, DP
Kid: Dansby Swanson (-.076). 1-4, RBI
WPA Play of the Game: Seiya Suzuki’s RBI double with runners on first and second and one out in the eighth drove in the game’s first run. (.255)
*Reds Play of the Game: With first and second and one out in the sixth, Nick Lodolo got Carson Kelly to ground into an inning ending double play to preserve the scoreless tie. (.126)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Poll
Who was the Cubs Player of the Game?
0%
Daniel Palencia
(0 votes)
0%
Pete Crow-Armstrong
(0 votes)
0 votes total
Yesterday’s Winner: Genesis Cabrera received 53 of 116 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
Kyle Tucker +20
Shōta Imanaga/Drew Pomeranz/Miguel Amaya +11
Jameson Taillon +9
Michael Busch -7.33
Seiya Suzuki -7.5
Ben Brown -11
Julian Merryweather -15
Dansby Swanson -18.33
Up Next: Jameson Taillon (4-3, 3.86, 63 IP) starts the series finale for the Cubs. Jameson has five May starts (3-2, 3.68, 29⅓ IP) and is coming off of back-to-back wins with one run allowed in each. He missed the Reds in the last series. He split two starts against the Reds last year. He was dominant at Wrigley and struggled in Cincinnati.
34-year-old Nick Martinez (3-5, 3.48, 64⅔ IP) starts for the Reds. Nick was an 18th round pick by the Rangers back in 2011 (564th overall). Nick also has five May starts (2-2, 2.25, 32 IP). He’s clearly pitched much better in May. He’s coming off of a good start in Kansas City (three runs over seven innings). He also missed the Cubs in the last series. He made four appearances against the Cubs last year, only one a start. In that start, he threw a complete game allowing one run. The only run he allowed to the Cubs in 15 innings of work. Baseball is a terrific sport. The Cubs were 1-0 against him, winning that one game despite Martinez’ complete game. Kudos to you if you remember that Jameson Taillon started that game.