It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this afternoon’s matchup.

First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

TV: BravesVision, Gray TV

Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan; La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM

Weather: 83° and mostly sunny, wind S at 6 mph.

RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
CF Michael Harris II
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
SS Mauricio Dubón
DH Dominic Smith
3B Austin Riley
LF Mike Yastrzemski
C Sandy León

Quick thoughts:

Mauricio Dubón, who has hit two homers in the last two days, gets another start at shortstop and swaps places with Michael Harris.

3B Nick Gonzalez
2B Brandon Lowe
LF Bryan Reynolds
DH Marcell Ozuna
CF Oneil Cruz
RF Jhostynxon Garcia
1B Spencer Horwitz
SS Jared Triolo
C Henry Davis

Quick thoughts:

Hot hitters for Pittsburgh:

Quick snapshot:

Pitch mix:

vs LHH: 53% sinker, 27% changeup, 10% curveball, 8% cutter, 2% four-seamer

vs RHH: 35% changeup, 26% cutter, 20% sinker, 11% curveball, 7% four-seamer

Who to watch:

There isn’t a ton of experience on this roster off of Pérez – only six hitters even have a single AB off of him – but Brandon Lowe is 3-9 with three RBI and Marcell Ozuna, while not having homered, is 4-7 with four RBI.

Quick snapshot:

The arsenal:

How he attacks hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)

vs LHH: Well-sequenced mix, anchored by the four-seamer. Changeup and sweeper ramp up when ahead, four-seamer and sinker when behind, with sweeper as the putaway pitch.

vs RHH: A three-pitch mix, anchored around two fastballs and a breaking ball. The sinker is more prevalent early in the count and before getting to two strikes, while the four-seamer is most used when behind and the sweeper takes over (at the expense of the sinker) when ahead and with two strikes.

Sequencing:

How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.

Watch out for Ronald Acuña Jr. today. In 19 career ABs off of Keller, he’s hitting .421 with a 1.371 OPS, three homers, and four RBI. Matt Olson’s 6-12 with a homer, while Austin Riley and Mauricio Dubón are both 4-10.

Likely available:

Used recently:

Potential limitations:

Quick takeaway:

Likely available:

Used recently

Potential limitations

Quick takeaway:

Pittsburgh has its leverage pieces all available, including three lefties in closer Gregory Soto, setup man Evan Sisk, and middle reliever Mason Montgomery.

Mitch Keller is looking for elusive success against Atlanta – In his last five starts, he’s 1-2 with a 5.63 ERA.

Danger of small sample sizes, though. That ERA is heavily colored by getting blasted by 2023’s generational Braves offense for eight runs on 12 hits in five innings. He allowed just one run in each of his last two starts, a 6.2-inning masterpiece in 2024 and a walk-filled abbreviated outing (3.2 innings) in 2025.

Any dangers of a Marcell Ozuna revenge game? The Big Bear’s hitting just .190/.277/.305 this season, but has been very good against Pérez.

The Braves are favored (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a moderate-scoring game (O/U 8.5 runs). This one comes down to Martín Pérez avoiding the big inning and leaving Atlanta’s offense an opportunity to stay in it.

If you’d like to also watch this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this afternoon, after lineups were announced.