It wasn’t long ago that the New York Yankees appeared to be fading fast in an AL East division that was somehow controlled by the Tampa Bay Rays.
Things were looking pretty ugly for the Yankees, as they kept losing and the Rays somehow kept on winning. In fact, as recently as May 22, New York found itself seven games behind Tampa Bay in the loss column.
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But now, here we are heading into the second week of June, and the Yankees are now just one loss behind the Rays for first place in the division.
It’s not that the Yanks have been playing tremendous baseball of late, either. Yes, they won five in a row nearing the end of May, but they have since gone just 3-4 over their last seven games, most recently topping the Boston Red Sox on Sunday afternoon.
The Rays, though, have been in freefall. After losing two out of three to the Miami Marlins over the weekend, Tampa Bay has now gone just 3-8 since getting to 34-15 going into the final week of last month.
And to be quite frank, it seemed like only a matter of time.
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The Rays own a Pythagorean record of 32-30 (the Yankees, meanwhile, are at 41-22) and have been getting what appear to be unsustainable results from their patchwork pitching staff, led by Nick Martinez and his 5.3 strikeouts per nine innings.
Tampa Bay Rays designated hitter Yandy Diaz. Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports.
Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan are both the real deal, but Martinez has been the fluky ace of the rotation, and Tampa Bay doesn’t even have a real No. 5 starter.
I will say that the Rays have a trio of terrific hitters in Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz and Jonathan Aranda, but their lineup depth once you get beyond those three is pitiful. Three of their starters have OPSes in the .500s, and not a single player outside of the aforementioned top three has an OPS of .700 or better.
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Tampa Bay’s bullpen has also been very problematic, ranking 22nd in the league in ERA. Bryan Baker has been impressive in the closer role, but the Rays’ middle relief has been more than questionable.
Going into 2026, I don’t think anyone had Tampa tabbed as the Yankees’ top competition in the AL East. Just about everyone assumed it would be the Toronto Blue Jays and the Red Sox. The Baltimore Orioles also looked improved.
Nonetheless, it has been the Rays who have given the Bronx Bombers the biggest fight thus far, even sweeping them earlier in the season.
But you kind of get the feeling that as the campaign progresses, the Yankees will begin to separate from Tampa Bay, even with Aaron Judge on the shelf for two months. It also would not be surprising if the Blue Jays ultimately usurped the Rays, as well.
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It’s a long season, and the cream usually rises to the top. We might already be starting to see that in June as Tampa Bay begins to lose steam.
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