Every off-season the rotation looks crowded whether it appears to be excellent, terrible, or somewhere in between. Then the A’s go out and add a SP or two even though it’s unclear where everyone will fit. Coming up from behind are exciting arms but you wonder where they will fit if they keep rising.

Then the calendar turns to June and you’re scrambling just to fill a rotation while the minors are looking downright barren. 2026 is no exception. How did we get there?

At the big league level, the A’s have lost their supposed #1 SP, Luis Severino, and he won’t be back any time soon. In the minors, highly touted 20 year old Wei-En Lin, who was one of the few pitching prospects having sustained success, has hit the IL with an ominous “elbow injury” that will be elaborated on when his MRI comes back. Tommy John surgery would put him out of the commission, realistically, until the 2028 season.

Braden Nett and Henry Baez, both quality prospects from the Mason Miller deal, spent time on the IL and while both are back pitching it’s hard to say how either one is feeling given the fact that last night they combined for 1.2 IP, threw a combined 79 pitches, and issued a combined 4 hits, 9 ER, and 6 BB.

The A’s entered the 2026 season with high hopes pinned on two younger SPs: Luis Morales and Jacob Lopez. Both were absolute busts, with Morales posting a 14.46 ERA in 9.1 IP woeful innings in which he surrendered 17 hits and walked 12. Lopez couldn’t get anything going, lasting for 10 starts/12 appearances and compiling a ghastly 6.75 ERA in 50.2 IP that included 33 walks.

Meanwhile, down on the farm Jamie Arnold has not lived up to his 1st round, “fast mover” pedigree. Slotted at AA which, granted, was aggressive, Arnold has just not been good. He has been touched for 71 hits in his 58 IP, and he has walked 29 (one every other inning), leading to a 4.66 ERA.

Also ineffective have been the aforementioned Nett and Baez, leaving the A’s 0 for 4 with their top 4 arms still in the minors (Arnold, Lin, Nett, Baez).

Two veteran arms counted on to stabilize the staff, Jeffrey Springs and Aaron Civale, got off to terrific starts but were last seen pitching well in April. Springs has not won a game since April, while Civale posted a 5.40 ERA in May, went on the IL, and returned last night to throw batting practice until we were relieved of his duties after 3 IP, 9 hits, 6 ER.

2 SPs who were excellent out of the gate have become guys you cringe when you see their turn is coming around. They are at best, right now, your #4 and #5 SPs but they are hardly anchors until further notice.

That’s 9, count ‘em, 9 pitchers who have seen their stock fall greatly since the season began: Severino, Springs, Civale, Morales, Lopez, Arnold, Lin, Nett, Baez.

Luckily there has been some good to counter the bad. Gage Jump has been as advertised, looking like a potential front of the rotation arm who is more than ready for the big leagues. JT Ginn has been exceptional, his breakout season showing him currently 6th in the league with a 2.91 ERA — and that’s with pitching half his games in Sacramento with a Summerlin chaser. Jack Perkins flashed his SP upside in 5 sparkling innings Tuesday before running out of gas in the 6th.

But before we get too jazzed about the “next big 3” we only need to look back a couple months to see how fickle pitching success is — pitchers get hurt constantly and when they’re healthy their progress is anything but linear. The A’s entered spring training with more pitching than they had spots for, and now they’re scrambling to get through games at every level. Stay tuned…