PITTSBURGH — As you evaluate the 2026 Cincinnati Reds, the coaching staff and the front office at the midpoint of the season, there are three important topics that you have to balance: Finances, transactions and development.
Payroll and the approach from Reds’ ownership is always going to be a factor in how the roster is built and the direction the Reds’ are taking.
The transactions made by the front office — both good (signing JJ Bleday and Nathaniel Lowe) and more questionable (the Ke’Bryan Hayes trade, or the Gavin Lux trade with the Dodgers) — are a part of the evaluation.
For a Reds’ team that hasn’t had a big payroll for most of its recent history, approach toward development is always going to be a critical piece of the puzzle as you determine the overall health of the Reds’ organization.
Ultimately, the Reds (37-42) haven’t been good enough through the first half of the season.
“We haven’t played up to our capability yet,” Nick Krall said on Friday. “We’ve had injuries. Everybody has injuries. We have some really good players on this team who can continue to take steps forward. We want to see those guys progressing. Some of it has been underperformance. In every aspect of our game, we need to continue to grow.”
A few player development topics have been especially notable watching the big league team this year.
The Reds have been the worst team in MLB against velocity (pitches 95 mph+), and that’s a skill that player development plays an important role in developing.
On the pitching side, the Reds’ young pitchers haven’t done a good enough job of throwing enough strikes, or of holding runners.
It’s an interesting time in Reds’ pitching development with pitching director Derek Johnson on a leave of absence. Organizational meetings last week in person in Cincinnati gave Reds’ brass a chance to look at and discuss how things are going. Without Johnson, Matt Tracy and Oscar Marin have stepped into bigger roles.
Krall said that Tracy and Marin have done a “very good job” with their added responsibilities over the last month.
Overall, Krall spoke positively about the state of Reds’ pitching development. The Reds statistically have been good at holding runners in the Minor Leagues. There are some good example of emerging under the radar pitchers in the farm system who have popped out of the blue, and the Reds have been one of the better teams in baseball at maximizing the value of their high pitching draft picks.
While the Reds would be in a much better spot this year if their rookie pitchers in 2026 (Connor Phillips, Luis Mey, Zach Maxwell, etc) had been more consistent in the big leagues, Krall sees the ship pointing in the right direction on the pitching side.
“We’ve got a lot of guys in the big leagues who have come through our system,” Krall said. “Do we need to get better? Of course we do. That’s a constant goal. Our guys overall have done a good job over the last few years. We’re just trying to make some tweaks and progress forward.”
On the hitting side, the Reds have an organizational philosophy that they’ve built around over the last six years.
“We need to continue to take good at-bats, be able to manipulate the bat, use the whole field and get on base,” Krall said. “Understanding what your zones are and what you can and can’t hit.”
There have been success stories like Sal Stewart, Blake Dunn and Bleday. There are also negative examples — Will Benson, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Rece Hinds — of players who couldn’t stick in the big leagues and uncertainties around players like Noelvi Marte and Matt McLain whose roles going forward aren’t set in stone.
“I don’t think development is linear,” Krall said. “Dunn has progressed in his role at the big league level. Sometimes, you think a guy will get to the big leagues and he’ll do exactly what he did in the minor leagues. Sometimes, you’ve got to figure out how to make those adjustments. We need to make sure we’re doing the best we can to help these kids grow at this level so they can be productive big leaguers.”
Maybe the oddest thing about the Reds right now is how little about their future is set in stone, specifically on the position player side.
Elly De La Cruz, Sal Stewart and Spencer Steer will be every day players on the team next year.
After that?
There are things to like about Bleday, Dunn, Marte, McLain, Edwin Arroyo, Dane Myers and others. But each of those players still has things to prove.
So do the Reds, who have the fourth-worst record in the National League.
“We just have to put it all together at the same time,” said Krall, who’s frustrated by the team’s record in division play this year.
Krall said that “it’s too early” to determine what the Reds’ approach at the trade deadline is going to be.
A full rebuild seems unlikely. Bleday, Steer, Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott would get the Reds more in return than their players on expiring contracts, but the Reds historically haven’t punted on seasons (even in 2022, when they held onto guys like Kyle Farmer and Donovan Solano at the deadline).
In 2024, the Reds didn’t entertain offers for Jonathan India and went on to deal two pitchers on expiring contracts in Frankie Montas and Lucas Sims. If the Reds don’t turn things around, the approach at the 2024 deadline looks like a relevant comparison.
The 2026 Reds have Eugenio Suárez, Brady Singer, Tyler Stephenson, Pierce Johnson, Caleb Ferguson, Brock Burke and Nathaniel Lowe, among others, on expiring contracts. The Reds, in theory, could “tear it down” by trading all of those guys for as many prospects as they can. But the 2024 example shows that the Reds typically haven’t gone in that direction.
Krall said that he’s very optimistic about the rotation, especially with Hunter Greene nearing a return (as soon as July 3). That’s one area of the team that gives Krall confidence, and the lineup also has Elly De La Cruz back off the IL. If the Reds start winning more games, then that better sets up a scenario where the Reds are more aggressive.
“If there’s something that can make your team better, you have to figure out what that is and how to do it for the short term and the long term,” Krall said.
Two more points about the scenario where the Reds would be buyers at the deadline
-Krall said that he hasn’t had conversations yet with ownership about the financial flexibility he’d have available to spend at the deadline.
-Krall brought up how the Reds unexpectedly traded for Zach Littell at the deadline last year (bullpen prices were really high on the trade market, so the Reds added a starter and moved Nick Martinez to the bullpen). Last year’s trade market shaped the process that ended up with the Reds landing Littell. This year’s trade market and the external factors in it would shape different paths the Reds could go down.
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