Independence Day weekend wraps up with a loaded slate of MLB series finales, including a Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees rubber match on Sunday afternoon in the Bronx. 

The Yankees (49–39, 2nd AL East) struck first with a 5–2 victory in Friday’s opener before the Twins (43–47, 3rd AL Central) punched back with an 11–4 drubbing on Saturday. 

Looking at the pitching probables, we’ve got Minnesota right-hander Joe Ryan (5–5, 3.61 ERA) taking on New York southpaw Ryan Weathers (3–6, 4.08 ERA). 

First pitch is at 1:35 p.m. ET. The Yankees enter as 1.5-run home favorites with -136 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Twins are +113 underdogs, with the game total set at O/U 8.5 runs.

Twins vs. Yankees Preview

Minnesota Twins

It was the Twins who provided the Fourth of July fireworks at Yankee Stadium, crushing six home runs en route to Saturday’s 11–4 curbstomp in the concrete jungle. 

Offensive explosions have become the norm for Minnesota, which boasts one of the sport’s most potent lineups this year — one that keeps getting hotter heading into the dog days of summer. The Twins are 13–9 since June 10, second-best in the American League behind Tampa Bay (13–8), while pacing the AL in wRC+ and wOBA during that stretch. Leading the charge is All-Star outfielder Byron Buxton, who has bashed 25 home runs with a .900 OPS in a refreshingly healthy 2026. 

Pitching remains an issue for Minnesota, primarily its MLB-worst bullpen. However, it has performed well so far in the Bronx, allowing just two earned runs over 8.1 innings. Regardless, their usage should be minimal on Sunday with ace Joe Ryan on the bump. The 30-year-old right-hander has posted a respectable 3.61 ERA (3.21 xERA) and a 1.08 WHIP with 113 strikeouts in 18 starts (97.1 IP) in 2026. Despite battling inconsistency in recent outings, Ryan is a perpetual low-walk, high-strikeout threat that ranks 11th among qualified starters with a 28.2 percent K-rate.

New York Yankees

They held on for as long as they could, but the Yankees couldn’t escape their annual June swoon. Already vulnerable without Aaron Judge — sidelined since May 31 — things completely unraveled a few weeks later. New York has gone just 4–12 since June 18, second-worst in MLB behind the crosstown rival Mets (3–11), and has dropped eight of its last nine games.  

Virtually every Bronx Bomber — including recently named All-Stars Ben Rice and Cody Bellinger — is mired in a synchronized slump. During this miserable stretch, the Yankees rank dead last in wRC+, OPS, wOBA, xwOBA, batting average, and on-base percentage. They’re also striking out 27.9 percent of the time, the most bloated mark in baseball. 

Meanwhile, New York’s full-throttle pitching staff has taken its foot off the gas of late. The starting rotation has them constantly playing catch-up, allowing the first run of the game in eight straight contests. They’ll need better from Sunday’s starter, Ryan Weathers, after the southpaw strikeout artist got hammered for a 5.55 ERA in five June starts (24.1 IP). 

Making matters even worse, you could find a more disciplined defense on a little-league diamond in Cooperstown. The Yankees have allowed 27 unearned runs in their last 14 games — compared to just 22 in their first 74 games of the season.

Twins vs. Yankees Pick, Best Bet

Shockingly, New York’s strategy of swinging wet newspapers and gifting opponents extra outs hasn’t exactly been a winning formula. With a surging offense and their ace on the bump, the Twins should stay hot in the Bronx and take Sunday’s series finale over the Yankees. 

Best Bet: Minnesota Twins Moneyline (+113)