Hello and welcome to Pitcher List’s latest series: Using PLA to Evaluate Pitchers! Every week, I will examine various pitchers and break them down using PLA. There will be various themes and topics each week, which will range from topics such as waiver wire picks, to buy or sell, to awards races, to lefties/righties only etc. I hope to mix it up as much as possible to keep you all on your toes.

PLA is an ERA estimator that was created in tandem with Pitch Level Value, which we refer to as PLV. PLV is essentially an all-encompassing stat that measures individual pitches and rates them on a 0-10 scale. The elements that factor into PLV include velocity, movement, release point, location, count, and handedness of batter. We have an excellent primer on this by the one and only Nick Pollack that you can find right here! PLA takes this 0-10 score and translates it to an estimated ERA, which makes it easier to understand and more useful for those looking for help with their fantasy teams.

It’s important to note that PLA isn’t necessarily a catch-all estimator, just as xERA, FIP, SIERA, and pCRA aren’t either. These stats ultimately still measure outcomes, which are largely dependent on how a player is executing that day. ERA estimators are not crystal balls, however, they can provide some insight if taken with a grain of salt. For the purpose of this series, we are going to use PLA as the main factor to evaluate pitchers (hence the series title), but again, no stat is perfect, especially in the complex world of pitching.

Also, stay tuned for other PLV evaluation article series, such as one that will look at individual pitches and another that will use Process+ to evaluate hitters!

This week, I’ve decided to look at some pitchers who have risen up the ranks this year, whether that’s in comparison to last season or where they stood at the beginning of the year.

Kevin Gausman – 3.09 PLA

All Gaus, no breaks!

Kevin Gausman looked to have lost his status as an ace last season, as he struggled to earn whiffs on the splitter and ended up sputtering out in several starts. The former Cy Young contender looked more like a 2/3 in a rotation, with some starts making him look awful.

Yet, Gausman has honestly been much better this year. The splitter that was key to getting whiffs has a bit more drop on it than last year, and the fastball, which has seen a bit of an uptick in velocity, has become more of a swing-and-miss pitch than it ever has. The slider, while mostly a non-factor, is improved over last year as well, as it has seen a higher strike rate (though still not great) and a better rating per PLV.

So, is Gausman back to who he was when he first joined the Blue Jays? Maybe? Yeah, we’re actually at that point where we can start feeling confident with Gausman again. He’s clearly made the changes to his arsenal that he’s needed to, and the ERA estimators across the board are in on him. PLA, especially, is though, as he has one of the best marks of any pitcher right now.

 

Drew Rasmussen – 3.27 PLA

Drew Rasmussen is finally going over 6 innings! And with how efficient he is, we can honestly start to expect 7. Maybe he will go all the way to 9, at least as long as Jorge Mateo isn’t there again to hit a double up the line to end his outing…

Rasmussen is a bit of a PLV darling, which is reflected by his great PLA. He is a fastball pitcher, as he features three distinct fastballs that all provide him with quick outs. PLV LOVES his four-seamer, as it’s a pitch he commands incredibly well and gets quick outs with. His cutter is arguably his best pitch, as it’s PLV numbers two years ago were amazing, and when it’s located well, he gets tons of whiffs on it. Unfortunately, he hasn’t found consistency with it yet, but PLV still really approves of the pitch. The sinker is far from his best pitch, as PLV doesn’t grade it out super well, though if he throws it like he did in his recent start against the Twins, its metrics will certainly improve.

Rasmussen hasn’t leaned into the breaking balls much this year, as he’s almost solely focused on the fast stuff. His sweeper has serious potential to be a swing-and-miss pitch, but again, he hasn’t used it too much in recent starts, and when he has, the results haven’t been amazing.

Drew Rasmussen is no longer just a 5-inning guy, and with that leash off, he is a pitcher that you should almost consider auto-starting at this point. He has excellent ratios, and the stuff is so good that a big strikeout game isn’t a far-fetched concept.

Will Warren – 4.40 PLA

Will Warren is another arm whose estimators are kind of all over the map, similar to Taillon earlier. His ERA is higher than you’d want, but the traditional peripheral estimators like FIP and xFIP showcase a pitcher who basically should be an elite ace. So, what is Warren really?

Well, he’s certainly a valuable pitcher. Warren is getting tons of strikeouts for a strong Yankees that gives him the chance to win every night he starts. There’s no question that he’s a valuable fantasy piece, and you definitely shouldn’t drop him.

So why is his PLA lower on him? Largely due to command. Warren can struggle to locate his pitches, which has led to below-average strike rates on nearly one of his offerings. He has a flat-angle four-seamer but doesn’t get the pitch upstairs quite enough to make it an elite offering. He still gets plenty of swing-and-miss on it, though, but it could be even better! His sweeper is the key pitch, as it moves with TONS of horizontal break. In fact, the pitch is 98th percentile in the stat. The pitches at the back of his arsenal are where things get ugly, according to PLV, though. The sinker is an alright addition that has plenty of horizontal break, but the changeup and curveball are definitely lacking in terms of both stuff and command.

Warren is overall a pitcher who is having a really great season and has a super high ceiling. PLA shows us, however, that the floor might make him a less safe option than some other pitchers.

Max Fried – 3.48 PLA

What a move in the offseason for the Yankees, bringing in Max Fried. He has, without a doubt,t become the team’s ace and has carved through some lineups along the way. While yes, his last start was far from amazing, it was against the unstoppable Dodgers. Fried is incredible, and PLA seems to agree that he’s a valuable arm, even if his grade is inflated a little bit compared to the insane numbers he’s put up to start the season.

All things considered, Fried has a pretty balanced arsenal. He doesn’t necessarily have that pitch he’s famous for, like Kodai Senga and the ghost fork, or Tarik Skubal with the changeup, but he does well with the solid stuff he has. 60% of his pitches are fastballs, as he has a four-seamer that he commands well and a sinker that generates groundballs at a ridiculous rate. Rounding out his arsenal are a solid curveball and a below-average changeup, as well as a cutter (that grades out exceptionally well in a small sample size) and a slider that he has almost entirely shelved.

Pitch-modeling statistics aren’t always going to be the most in on Fried, as he isn’t a “stuff” pitcher (though honestly, he can be underrated in that regard), but PLA still shows that he’s a strong pitcher, even if it doesn’t project him to be a sub-2 ERA guy.


David Peterson – 4.35 PLA

When I did the ERA late-round draft targets article, I mentioned that David Peterson gave managers a great ERA last year, so he was a target that you could consider if you want to improve your ERA. Little did I know that he’d actually continue to have an elite ERA, despite all the red flags that are apparent when you break down his game.

Peterson doesn’t have the best stuff at first glance. He throws tons of fastballs, with a sinker used at 29% and a four-seamer at 23%. Both of these fastballs are under 30th percentile in velocity, and he doesn’t have the best command, though he does get the four-seamer upstairs at a nice clip. The key to Peterson’s success is his extension, which comes in at over 7 feet. This not only helps make up for the poor velocity on the fastballs, but it also makes it more difficult for hitters to read which pitch is coming out of his hand. This sets up his slider nicely, which is his putaway pitch. Peterson also features a changeup, which Is pretty average as far as changeups go, and a curveball for strikes, which is a surprisingly great addition to his arsenal.

PLA rates Peterson as a mid-4s ERA guy, and to be honest, it feels like that’s what we’ve been expecting from him for years now. Yet he continues to outperform his peripherals and hopefully will continue to. PLA says to be cautious, but the current results show that he’s a valuable pitcher.