This visual via FanGraphs shows the downward decline Paul Skenes has experienced with his fastball velocity since making his major-league debut back in May 2024: 

FANGRAPHS

Skenes averaged 98.8 mph with his fastball back in 2024 before experiencing a 0.7 mph dip in velo last season (98.1 mph). This year, he’s again trended downward, averaging 96.9 with a heater that maxed out at 97.9 mph and was thrown with a velocity as low as 93.6 mph in his last start against the Phillies. Per Codify, Skenes averaged 26 pitches per start at 98-plus mph in his first 55 MLB starts, all through the end of last year. Over his last three starts against the Rockies, Reds and Phillies, he’s thrown just four pitches above 98 mph. And triple-digit fastballs are a thing of the past, too. 

Now, Skenes told me back in Denver, following a third straight quality start that had his season ERA at 2.86, his WHIP at 0.93 and batting average against at .199, that his dip in fastball velocity has been “by design” in an effort to preserve his arm health and be available every fifth day. And he insists it’s nothing he’s been worried about. He’s still limiting opposing hitters to a .188 average, a lower figure than the .205 average against last year and .230 in 2024, but that graph above does point to his rather drastic decline in velocity. Combine that with a failure to execute at times, as well as his latest struggles in allowing 11 earned runs over his last nine innings, and it raises legitimate concerns and questions as to what it’ll take for Skenes to truly find his elite form again. 

Skenes, who was named an All-Star for a third time this weekend, has two chances to turn things around this week, and against two of Major League Baseball’s highest-scoring offenses. He’s scheduled to face the Braves (eighth with 431 runs) in Tuesday’s series opener and lines up to make his final start of the first half against the Brewers (fifth with 449 runs) on Sunday.Â