Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins prediction, pick for Friday 7/10/26

Since 2016, the Minnesota Twins rebounded from a 59-win season to build a core that made the playoffs in three of four seasons, adjusted that core to make the postseason again in 2023, went on one of the most notable fire sales in MLB history at last summer’s trade deadline, and are in decent position to make the playoffs at nearly the All-Star break in 2026. In the same span, the Los Angeles Angels have recorded 10 consecutive losing seasons and are virtually guaranteed to make that 11 this campaign.

The teams will face off in their final series before the All-Star break, which will begin with an 8:10 p.m. ET meeting in Minnesota.

Los Angeles will open the series with Grayson Rodriguez on the mound, and the Twins will start Zebby Matthews.

Let’s break down this clash with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins Best Bets

Over 9.5 (-105): I’m not very confident in either of these starting pitchers, and it’s not like either team has an excellent bullpen to back either up. Even without Byron Buxton, Minnesota should still be able to get to Grayson Rodriguez.

Josh Bell 2+ Total Bases (+120): Bell has turned back the clock in the past 10 games, posting a .990 OPS and reaching the 2-TB threshold five times in that span. He’s had an xSLG north of .500 against right-handed four-seam fastballs.

Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins prediction, preview

If the Angels harbored any hope of ending their playoff drought when the season first started, those hopes collapsed quickly, as they got off to a 17-34 start. While Los Angeles has since improved, going 20-23 over its last month and a half, it has dug itself too deep a hole to climb out of. Offensively, the Angels have been weak, ranking 10th-to-last in OPS overall and 12th-to-last over the last 30 days, as despite Mike Trout’s bounce-back season, virtually nobody else has played well offensively. Zach Neto emerged as a potential rising star last season but leads the American League in strikeouts so far in 2026, and Jo Adell has paired his horrific defense with league-average hitting. Additionally, Los Angeles’ pitching has been expectedly poor; despite José Soriano’s generating some early-season Cy Young Award buzz and his compatriot Walbert Ureña’s strong performances, the Angels rank fourth-to-last in rotation ERA, and they pair that with the sixth-worst bullpen.

Minnesota, meanwhile, has been quietly solid. It started out 11-7, and despite falling to 32-40, 14 wins in their last 22 games have brought the Twins back to within shouting distance of .500 and put them one game behind the AL’s final Wild Card spot. Minnesota has been pretty special offensively, ranking seventh in OPS for the season. While the primary reason for that strong performance, outfielder Byron Buxton, is currently on the injured list, Kody Clemens and Trevor Larnach have both recorded an OPS+ north of 120 as well. The Twins’ rotation has also been decent, with the 15th-best ERA, and Joe Ryan was named an All-Star for the second consecutive season. However, Minnesota will surely be looking for bullpen help at the trade deadline, as its relievers have posted a league-high 5.28 ERA.

Rodriguez hasn’t made a start since June 14 after a stint on the injured list with back tightness, but perhaps the time off will do him good, given how poor he was before his injury. The left-hander has made six starts this season, giving up at least two earned runs in five of them and pitching to an 8.06 ERA overall. His sample size is tiny, but advanced numbers are not in his favor; he ranks in just the first percentile in expected ERA, expected batting average, chase rate, and hard-hit rate, as well as in the second percentile in average exit velocity. The Twins should be salivating, especially since they rank above the league median in barrel rate, chase rate, and ground ball rate. Rodriguez’s only saving graces are his minor league form — in his rehab starts, both from this injury and from his earlier elbow surgery, he’s combined for a 2.37 ERA — and the fact that the home-road splits are in his favor.

Matthews should have the advantage in the starting pitching matchup. Though he produced negative value as a rookie in 2024 and was about a replacement-level player in 2025, he’s recorded a 4.43 ERA through his first 10 starts of 2026, giving up two or fewer runs six times, including thrice in his past four starts. Matthews’ advanced numbers are a mixed bag; although he ranks in just the 35th percentile in expected ERA, he has some strengths, including an 81st-percentile walk rate. Additionally, while he ranks in just the 35th percentile in strikeout rate, no team has struck out more times than Los Angeles. Matthews can be prone to big flies — he’s given up 13 in just 61.0 innings — but he’s done a decent job limiting significant damage otherwise. Unfortunately for Matthews, the splits aren’t in his favor; the Angels have had an OPS 100 points higher on the road.

Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins pick, best bet

Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-105)

Los Angeles has enough bats to get to Matthews, especially on the road in warm conditions in the Twin Cities, and Minnesota should also be able to challenge Rodriguez, even without Buxton. It’s not like either of these teams has a particularly strong bullpen after the starters leave the game.

Strong Lean: Josh Bell 2+ Total Bases (+120)

For the most part, the Twins have a pretty young roster after trading several of their veterans at last summer’s trade deadline, but the 33-year-old Bell has turned back the clock in his last 10 games, posting a .990 OPS and recording two total bases in five of those games. Bell has had a solid .516 xSLG against right-handed fastballs so far this season.

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