An intriguing interleague showdown is on tap tonight at Progressive Field. The Pirates (50-47) are a pleasant surprise, hanging around in the National League postseason race. As for the Guardians (51-46), a second-straight AL Central title is within reach. Coming out of the All-Star break, both teams will be looking to get things started on a high note. Which side has the edge tonight in Cleveland?
The Guardians are favorites (-131) over the Pirates, with the over/under set at 7.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s showdown between Pittsburgh and Cleveland on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pirates vs. Guardians pick, best bet today
Pirates ML (+109): Williams and Jones are both talented, but neither has a decisive edge over the other. However, Cleveland’s offense ranks as one of the league’s worst units, especially with Jose Ramirez (hand) sidelined. In comparison, Pittsburgh is scoring the most runs per game in baseball. Give me the Pirates at plus money tonight.
Pirates vs. Guardians prediction, preview
Pittsburgh will get things started with Jared Jones on the rubber. Despite his immense talent, the 24-year-old has looked off since returning from injury in late May. Over 35.0 innings (eight starts), he’s on the hook for a 4.37 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 39 strikeouts (10.0 K/9). With that being said, the right-hander has begun to turn things around. He’s allowed one total run during his previous two outings. Even more impressive, those appearances came against postseason contenders in the Braves and Phillies. Per Savant, Jones sits within the 93rd percentile in average fastball velocity (98.6 MPH) and whiff rate (32.7%). However, he also possesses an above average 7.6% walk rate and 45.7% ground ball rate.
Jones may not need to be at his absolute best in order to take advantage of this Guardians lineup. They’ve recorded an American League-worst 3.97 runs per game this season. In addition, Cleveland has accounted for the sixth-lowest OPS against right-handed pitching (.688). That’s without factoring in the ongoing absence of franchise cornerstone Jose Ramirez (hand). The third baseman’s stint on the injured list has left this offense in a serious rut. Among Guardians players on the active roster with 200+ plate appearances, only three have a wRC+ above 100.
In this battle between promising young arms, Cleveland will counter with Gavin Williams. It’s no stretch to say that the 6’6″ hurler has already cemented himself as the ace of this pitching staff. Over 113.1 innings of work, he’s notched a 3.81 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 134 strikeouts (10.6 K/9). However, the 26-year-old isn’t without his flaws. A 4.39 xERA and 48.6% hard-hit rate don’t inspire a ton of confidence. Still, Guardians fans should feel good about the big right-hander’s chances tonight. He’s been far more effective at home (3.00 ERA) than on the road (4.55 ERA). After tossing so many innings during the first half, an extended All-Star break rest should have Williams’ arm fresh as well.
The only issue for Cleveland? Tonight’s opponent is no pushover at the plate. Unlike in years past, the Pirates are an offensive juggernaut. They’re averaging an MLB-best 5.32 runs per game this season, ranking near the top in a number of different statistical categories. Offseason pickups Brandon Lowe (115 wRC+) and Ryan O’Hearn (128 wRC+) have played a major role in making Pittsburgh a far deeper lineup. Granted, the absences of Oneil Cruz (hand) and Konnor Griffin (finger) hurts. Still, that hasn’t mattered much over the past few weeks. The Buccos have scored 103 runs over their previous 15 games, by far the most in baseball during that stretch.
The Guardians are at home with a top-end pitcher on the mound. However, the gap between Williams and Jones isn’t very notable. At his best, the latter is more than capable of mowing down batters. The same can’t be said for these two lineups; the Pirates are operating on another level this season while Cleveland struggles to string together hits. At plus money, Pittsburgh makes plenty of sense on the moneyline.
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