“Choice usually isn’t choice, only what you’re left with.”
— “Be Mine,” Richard Ford

Sunday could make you forget.

With Francisco Lindor powering the middle of the lineup and Nolan McLean overpowering the other one, the New York Mets on Sunday provided a glimpse of what should have been in 2026.

Instead, the 6-1 win over the Philadelphia Phillies to clinch a series win is an outlier performance in a moribund season. In their 100th game, the Mets won for just the 42nd time. They will be sellers at the trade deadline in two weeks, their focus shifting to 2027.

How can they rebound then?

Since 1995, 164 teams have completed the first half of a season with a winning percentage of .430 or worse. (This year’s Mets were at .412.) Eighteen of them have made the postseason the next year, with the 2024 Kansas City Royals the most recent and most remarkable example. Kansas City finished the first half of the 2023 season at 26-65 — 11 games worse even than this year’s Mets — and turned it around to reach the Division Series in 2024.

What did those 18 teams have in common? What can the Mets learn from them about what it takes to rebound from one of the most disappointing seasons in franchise history? And how important is the work right now at the trade deadline?

Interim manager Andy Green summed it up Sunday: “Our good players have to turn great, our great players have to be stars, and then the guys who have just shown up have to contribute.”

Step 1: A superstar emerges via a breakout or returns via a bounce back

If you’re going to forge a huge turnaround, you’re going to need at least one player to show massive improvement — someone to be roughly four or five wins better than the year before.

This can come from within via a sparkling rookie debut, such as Evan Longoria with the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays or Kris Bryant with the 2015 Chicago Cubs. It can come from a player making the leap from a pretty good regular to a legitimate superstar, such as Sammy Sosa with the 1998 Cubs or Lance Berkman with the 2001 Houston Astros. It can come from a young player making a large leap from a superstar to an even bigger one, such as Bobby Witt Jr. with the 2024 Royals.

It can come from within via a veteran bounce back, as well. The 2015 Texas Rangers saw Prince Fielder and Shin-Soo Choo return to form after difficult seasons the year before. The 2002 Cubs did not get a vintage Moisés Alou season; the 2003 team did.

And it can come from outside the organization. The 1999 Arizona Diamondbacks signed Randy Johnson to arguably the greatest free-agent contract ever for a pitcher — and traded Karim García for Luis Gonzalez, just as the latter broke through as an MVP candidate. The 2015 Cubs added Jon Lester to the rotation. The 2008 Rays won the challenge trade of Delmon Young for Matt Garza pretty handily.

The good news for the Mets is there are several candidates to be superstars in 2027. Lindor has been one for most of his career; at 32, he’s not necessarily in irreversible decline. Bo Bichette is capable of a better, more consistent season. And though it’s unlikely that McLean or A.J. Ewing or Carson Benge will put up six wins above replacement next season, it’s not impossible.

Step 2: Multiple players improve from being playable to being good

Though the superstar jump typically draws the headlines, a rebound season is fueled by a whole bunch of players being one or two wins better than they were the year before.

Usually, this involves a player going from around replacement level to having some actual value as an everyday player. For the 2024 Royals, that growth came from Vinnie Pasquantino, Michael Massey and Alec Marsh. For the 2015 Rangers, it was Mitch Moreland, Rougned Odor and Colby Lewis.

For the Mets, this is where Brett Baty or Mark Vientos and a veteran such as Jorge Polanco or Marcus Semien could end up in 2027, looking more like a viable everyday player than any of them have so far this season.

There’s also the version of this in which an everyday player performs more like an All-Star for much of the season. Octavio Dotel became an absolute force out of the bullpen for the 2001 Astros, who improved by 11 games in one-run games from the previous year. You probably think of David Price debuting late in the season for the 2008 Rays, but Andy Sonnanstine was a surprising anchor for that rotation through the regular season.

That’s where Ewing, Benge and Christian Scott are likelier to fit for the Mets next season. This will be the third straight year we’ve thought Francisco Alvarez was capable of this kind of jump.

Step 3: Someone has a career year

Look, you’re going to need a little well-timed fortune, too. It was great for the 1998 Cubs that Sosa hit 66 home runs and Kerry Wood debuted as one of the sport’s best pitchers. And yet, that team still would have missed the postseason if not for the career year of former Met Mark Clark. You might think the 2012 Athletics were carried by Sonny Gray and Josh Donaldson; nope, career years from Tommy Milone and Jonny Gomes were more important. (Gray wasn’t even a major leaguer yet.) Ryan Roberts contributed more than half of his career WAR to the 2011 Diamondbacks.

This is a bit harder to project for the Mets; if I could tell you who was about to have a career year, I’d have traded Vientos in November 2024 and wouldn’t be writing for a living.

Step 4: The prior trade deadline provides some help

In most of these examples, the organization didn’t make a splash move at the previous summer’s trade deadline that changed everything. (No, the 1998 Diamondbacks’ sending Willie Blair and Jorge Fabregas to the Mets for Bernard Gilkey didn’t spark their turnaround.)

But in a handful of cases, the deadline was significant. The Royals stand out here, as their 2023 trade of Aroldis Chapman to the Rangers brought back Cole Ragans. Ragans would earn Cy Young votes for Kansas City in 2024 as part of a totally revamped rotation. The 2014 Cubs turned Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel into 2015 starting shortstop Addison Russell. The 2011 Baltimore Orioles dealt away Koji Uehara for Chris Davis and Tommy Hunter — key contributors over the next half-decade.

In Freddy Peralta, Clay Holmes and Luke Weaver, the Mets have players at least as appealing as Chapman was three years ago. Even if they don’t turn into prospects who contribute as soon as next year, the returns over the next few weeks can help restock the organization and pave the way for more additions this winter.

The exposition

The Mets took two of three from the Phillies out of the break. They’re 42-58.

The Milwaukee Brewers opened the second half with a sweep of the Miami Marlins. Milwaukee is 62-37, right on the heels of the Los Angeles Dodgers for the best record in baseball. Milwaukee’s lead over the Cubs in the NL Central is six games.

The Dodgers couldn’t finish off a sweep of the New York Yankees in the Bronx on Sunday night. Los Angeles’ 63-37 record is still, barely, the best in baseball.

The pitching possibles

at Milwaukee

RHP Freddy Peralta (5-8, 4.66 ERA) vs. RHP Brandon Sproat (3-4, 5.16 ERA)
LHP Zach Thornton (0-1, 2.60) vs. RHP Jacob Misiorowski (10-4, 1.62)
RHP Christian Scott (3-1, 2.87) vs. RHP Logan Henderson (3-1, 2.97)

vs. Los Angeles

LHP Sean Manaea (2-5, 4.74) vs. RHP Roki Sasaki (3-5, 4.98)
RHP Nolan McLean (7-6, 3.34) vs. RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (10-6, 2.78)
RHP Freddy Peralta vs. RHP Emmet Sheehan (4-6, 4.81)

Inside baseball

After Scott’s final start of the first half (five scoreless innings with three hits allowed against the Royals), Green challenged Scott.

“Frankly, it’s a great outing. He’s better than that, too, at the same time,” Green said, noting the several times Scott had fallen behind in a count or failed to efficiently finish a hitter or inning. “He can step on the neck of the other team when he gets two outs. That’s how he’s going to get deeper in the baseball game. That’s just knowing what somebody has inside of them and what they’re capable of. The process stuff for Scotty can get better and better.

“He’s doing a lot of great things, but the bar is going to be held really high for him because we think he can reach it. We know he can reach it. There’s another level there.”

In his first start of the second half, Scott responded. Although his final line looked awfully similar (5 2/3 scoreless innings with three hits allowed against the Phillies), Scott controlled the game at a different level. If not for the unnaturally hazy conditions and a stacked bullpen off the break, Scott likely would have finished six and maybe even started the seventh.

He appreciated the tough love from Green.

“I love when he challenges me. I don’t want to hear how good I did. I want to hear what I can improve upon,” Scott said Thursday in Philadelphia. “Sometimes results kind of lie. I thought it was a good kick in the ass to light that fire in me. I needed that for that day. Especially coming off a zero and knowing I could pitch better, that was a good time for him to bring it up.”

Injury updates

Mets’ injured list

Player

  

Injury

  

Elig.

  

ETA

  

Lumbar spine disk herniation

Now

July

Right forearm strain

July 23

July

Rib fracture

Now

July

Fractured right fibula

July 25

July

Right hand fracture

Now

August

Tommy John surgery

Now

August

Tommy John surgery

Now

2027

Tommy John surgery

Now

2027

Red = 60-day IL
Orange = 15-day IL
Blue = 10-day IL

Luis Robert Jr. should rejoin the team during the series in Milwaukee, Green said Sunday.
Holmes is slated for another rehab start Thursday. Holmes would be eligible to return after that start if he and the Mets so chose.
Vientos expects to be out four to six weeks total with that hand fracture, putting his return in the second half of August.
Minor-league schedule

Triple A: Syracuse at Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (New York, AL)
Double A: Binghamton vs. Portland (Boston)
High A: Brooklyn at Jersey Shore (Philadelphia)
Low A: St. Lucie vs. Fort Myers (Minnesota)

A note on the epigraph

Every once in a while, when I’m reading a novel, I start to worry that I’m reading only to find a good epigraph — that the occasional good sentence is trying to mitigate a story that isn’t cohering the way I’d like. I really felt that way during “Be Mine,” the fifth installment in Ford’s Frank Bascombe series of novels that started with “The Sportswriter.” (I’ve read them all, generally finding each one a little less fun than the prior one.) There are still excellent sentences and keen observations, but I found the book a bit cold given its weighty subject matter.

Trivia time

McLean improved his career ERA to 2.96 through his first 28 big-league starts. Can you name the last Mets pitcher to post an ERA of 2.96 or better through his first 28 major-league starts?

HINT: It was more recent than you think.

As a bonus, what pitcher in Mets history posted the best ERA (and most wins) through 28 starts?

HINT: It was farther back than you think.

(I’ll reply to the correct answer in the comments.)