The AL Central isn’t nearly as strong as last year, but there are still some intriguing narratives to follow in this division throughout the remainder of the campaign. A feisty Minnesota Twins squad has deployed one of the MLB’s best offenses all season, but they were outgunned last night by the Cleveland Guardians in a 13-4 finish last night to open this series. The action continues on Tuesday night at Progressive Field with first pitch set for 6:40 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Twins vs. Guardians game, courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Twins vs. Guardians prediction, preview

This division isn’t all that impressive, but the battle for the top spot — and a possible Wild Card berth — should be fun to track over the next couple of months. At the moment, the Guardians are just a game shy of first place in the AL Central at 53-48 with a -3 run differential, though they’ve gone 2-2 since returning from the All-Star break. As for the Twins, they’re five games back of the top spot and three games out of the postseason picture at 49-52, but a -33 run differential and 1-3 skid out of the break obviously leave a lot to be desired.

Last night, these clubs met and kicked off the series with 17 combined runs on a grand total of 29 hits. However, it was a 13-4 thrashing in Cleveland’s favor that saw a typically poor offense rack up 19 of those knocks and blast seven homers in the process. It was certainly an atypical showing for a group that’s usually one of the MLB’s worst in terms of power, but whether they can keep the bats hot against one of baseball’s worst bullpens should prove interesting.

The Twins send rookie LHP Kendry Rojas out tonight. The No. 9 prospect in the club’s system, he’s thrown 19.1 innings in the MLB with a 2.79 ERA, a 1.60 WHIP and 22 strikeouts. So far, he’s kept exit velocity down well and has a .187 xBA, also generating an above-average whiff rate with a 25.6% K%. The sample size remains small though, and he’s only worked two starts in eight appearances with a very rough 18.6% BB%. The Minnesota bullpen is also 27th in ERA at 5.11 with a 1.53 WHIP and an 8.9% K-BB%, so there’s little support behind Rojas.

The Guardians do have a clear edge on the mound with their own arm. LHP Parker Messick starts with an 8-5 record across his 19 starts, amassing a 2.73 ERA (fifth in the AL) with a 1.07 WHIP (sixth in the AL). His 110 strikeouts in 112.0 IP are also good for a 24.7% K%, but it’s the way he limits barrels and keeps exit velocity down that allows him to work so well. Messick is backed by a bullpen that ranks seventh in ERA at 3.75 with a 16.4% K-BB%, though a 1.31 WHIP is a little less inspiring.

As for the bats, here’s how things shake out. The Twins are a far superior offense on the full season’s sample, averaging 4.78 runs per game and ranking eighth in team OPS at .735. They’re also 10th in ISO (.165) and 12th in home runs (123) while also ranking middle-of-the-pack in terms of BB/K ratio (0.40). However, it’s worth noting they’re not great against left-handed pitching, seeing a slash line of .228/.321/.359 which drops the OPS to .680 in the split. The Guardians, meanwhile, are second-to-last in scoring with 4.01 runs per game. They also fall 26th in OPS (.689), 29th in ISO (.144) and 25th in homers (101), although the 0.43 BB/K ratio is sixth best in the MLB. Their own splits against lefties are even worse than the opponent’s, slashing .225/.311/.348 for a .659 OPS.

Twins vs. Guardians pick, best bet

On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Guardians are favorites to win outright at home with -150 odds on the Moneyline. The Twins slot in at +124 odds. The run total is set at eight for this contest.

Following a purple patch back in June, Messick has been back in form over his last couple of outings, at least in terms of run suppression. He’s allowed just one earned run in each of his two July starts over a period of 11.0 innings, notably allowing just six hits in this span. However, his walks are up a bit — he’s allowed seven in this sample — and his strikeouts are way down with only four combined punchouts. He’s not as fearsome right now as early in the season, and the right-handed pitching that’ll follow him does give Minnesota a much better chance.

It does seem like this matchup is a regression spot for the Guardians’ bats. They’ll probably get on base some given the opposing starter’s control issues, but hitting a lefty is tough for them and I’m not sure they wind up winning this game, even against a poor bullpen later on. It’s difficult to really pick a winner here, so I’d much rather take the Twins to go over 3.5 runs on their team total tonight given the overall success of the offense this year. They also eclipsed this mark in four of the seven prior games against Cleveland, for what it’s worth.

Best bet: MIN Twins over 3.5 runs (-125)