There have been a lot of claims made that the Detroit Tigers would be making a potentially franchise-altering mistake by not exchanging Tarik Skubal for some magic beans, er, prospects at the MLB trade deadline. Agree to disagree.
A look back at franchise history begins to explain why.
The Athletic recently took a look at some past returns to predict what teams may expect to receive back for their stars in a deal. Tarik Skubal’s comparison was David Price. That does not exactly give a lot of confidence.
The David Price trade did nothing to help the Tigers be more competitive
As Tim Britton noted, the Blue Jays traded Daniel Norris, Matthew Boyd and Jairo Labourt to the Tigers for Price in 2015. “Norris was the big get as a top-25 prospect in the sport,” Britton wrote. “Boyd had just made his debut as a potential back-end starter, and Labourt had made the Futures Game despite pedestrian on-field results.”
Labourt pitched in all of six forgettable games for the Tigers. Norris managed a below average ERA of 4.52 and just 6.5 WAR across eight seasons spent with the Tigers. Matthew Boyd peaked for a year or two at about league average for a starting pitcher but finished with a below-average 4.61 ERA for his Tigers career.
On one hand, you could argue that the Tigers managed to turn one player who wouldn’t help them make the playoffs into two players who couldn’t help them make the playoffs, so at least there’s that. On the other hand, what even is the point in that?!
The team that gets the major league player back usually wins the trade. Prospects are a lot like ripping open packs of baseball cards. Sure, there’s always the exciting allure you could find a 1/1 signed card. But mostly, you’re just getting a bunch of common Matt Vierling cards instead. The pack was most valuable before you opened it. The major leaguer is more useful than some minor leaguers.
Could you trade your established for the next Kevin McGonigle? Maybe. But more likely you’ll get Daz Cameron and Franklin Perez.
Cameron and Perez, coupled with current Tiger Jake Rogers, were the return for Justin Verlander. Cameron finished his Tigers career with a below replacement -0.8 WAR. Perez never made the big leagues. And we like Rogers, sure, but that hardly makes the deal a “win” for Detroit. They would not have been a substantially worse franchise without him.
Who remembers who the Tigers got back for Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez, or Justin Upton? I don’t.
More recently, Scott Harris turned Jack Flaherty into Trey Sweeney (-0.1 WAR) and Thayron Liranzo (hasn’t passed Double-A) in 2024. Not exactly confidence giving either.
The 2026 Tigers are a better bet than a collection of lottery tickets
To be clear: it’s not that every trade of an established major league player for a prospect goes badly. Some do turn out. Most don’t. So the idea the Tigers are making some huge mistake if they hold onto Skubal and make a run at the playoffs in 2026 seems like apoplectic exaggeration. He’d be a two-month rental. The return there isn’t exactly franchise-hinging. At the worst, they can still get a draft pick out of him if he walks after the season.
Just because the Price deal failed to work out doesn’t mean the Tigers are doomed to repeat the past. But trading Skubal for a top-100 prospect is no guarantee either, so let’s not pretend it is.
For almost two months now, since June 1, the Tigers are tied for the best record in the American League and have the best run differential in baseball.
Betting on that and keeping Skubal seems a far more predictable outcome. They could miss out on a big return, but odds are they probably won’t.
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