Cardinals utilityman Brendan Donovan singles in the eighth inning of a game against the Pirates on Wednesday, May 7, 2025, at Busch Stadium.
Allie Schallert, Post-Dispatch
Entering this year, if we were to compare strengths of baseball divisions to college football conferences, the American League East would’ve been the Southeastern Conference, the National League East would’ve been the Big Ten and the NL Central would’ve been — hold on, I have to Google it because all I know it is has something “America” in it — ah, yes, the American Athletic Conference.
No one was supposed to be particularly good. And definitely not the transitioning Cardinals, who didn’t sign a free-agent hitter or starting pitcher.
But come Monday, only one division in Major League Baseball had four teams with positive run differentials. Not only that, but the NL Central’s Chicago Cubs had the second-highest run differential in the sport — Chicago’s plus-97 was just a run behind the Yankees’ plus-98.
Yup, in addition to the 37-22 Cubbies, the 33-26 Cards were plus-30, the 32-28 Brewers were plus-18 and, surprisingly, the 29-31 Reds, like the Redbirds, were plus-30. Only pitiful Pittsburgh (22-38) was in the negative (minus-58).
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So what does this mean for the Cardinals? Now, before 2023, it would’ve been an even bigger issue for St. Louis. Back then, division teams played one another 19 times a year. But now, it’s 13 times a year. So being in a winning division isn’t as daunting as before. And of course, there are more playoff spots than ever before.
Different stat sites have different mathematical models for determining a team’s strength of schedule. When you look at FanGraphs, the Reds have the “toughest” schedule for the rest of the year in the NL Central (.508 strength of schedule winning percentage), while St. Louis and Chicago have the easiest (.496).
FanGraphs also determines a “rest of season” winning percentage. The Cubs have the highest in the division (.525), and the Cards and Brewers have the same .498 (but because St. Louis is currently ahead of Milwaukee in the standings, it has the Cards at 84.3 projected wins and the Brew Crew at 82.8).
As of Monday, the Cubs had a an 85.8% chance to play in the postseason, while St. Louis was at 37.2%, Milwaukee at 26%, Cincinnati at 4.2% and Pittsburgh at 0.2% (so you’re saying there’s a chance!).
The Reds’ positive run differential, though, shows that they could be a pesky opponent, especially in the small sample size of a series. And the Reds haven’t yet received reinforcement offensively from Matt McLain, who was projected to be, you know, good. And Cincy entered Monday with the fifth-best ERA (3.75) and the second-best WHIP (1.21) in the National League.
The Brewers are, suddenly, fascinating. The club doesn’t club — Milwaukee has the third-lowest on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) in the NL (.683, only in front of Pittsburgh and Colorado). But the Brewers entered Monday on a seven-game winning streak. They catapulted to fifth in the NL in runs scored. And Christian Yelich suddenly looks like, well, MVP Christian Yelich (the veteran star earned Major League Baseball’s award for the NL’s top player last week, after Yelich went 10 for 20 with three homers, including a walk-off grand slam against Boston).
And six of Milwaukee’s next nine are against sub-.500 opponents, prior to the June 12-15 series in Wisconsin against … the St. Louis Cardinals.
I just don’t think Milwaukee has the relief pitching prowess to last a whole season in the division race. The Brewers are ninth in NL ERA (3.98), and while their starters have overachieved, their bullpen has underachieved (or, I suppose, accurately achieved). Milwaukee’s ’pen has a 4.56 ERA (11th in NL) and has walked 104 batters (only relievers from Miami and Colorado have walked more guys, but not even that many more — 106 for each).
As for the Cubs, they are surviving on the mound, even with Shota Imanaga (hamstring) on the injured list and Justin Steele (elbow) out for the year — Steele, if you recall, had ERAs the previous three seasons of 3.18, 3.06 and 3.07. And their offensive has been so good, it’s the closest the Dodgers have to an NL equivalent. Los Angeles has an impossible team OPS of .817 (last year, LA was tops in NL team OPS, at .781). But second this season is Chicago (.783). Sure enough, the Cubs have the second-most homers, doubles and walks.
Free-agent signing Kyle Tucker has been worth every cent — he’s hitting .284 and is seventh in the NL with a .917 OPS. But the most exciting player on the North Side is a fellow named Pete Crow-Armstrong, who really does have a strong arm (94th percentile on Baseball Savant). He’s also good at everything else. He’s a wonder. “PCA,” as they call him, has 15 homers and 19 stolen bases. He has a .280 average and 51 RBIs. He’s becoming a must-see player — or, visually specifically, a can’t-take-your-eyes-off-him guy.
And for those into trivia, his mom is an actress and played the mom of the kid MLB manager in the 1994 film “Little Big League.”
Chicago might need to make a deal for a starter in the coming weeks. And the Cubs face the first-place Tigers and Phillies in the coming stretch. But they sure have the edge on the others in the division, even if the others in the division are better than expected.
Again though, how cool is this: In what was expected to be a lost year for St. Louis, the Cardinals-Cubs rivalry games will be relevant at Busch and Wrigley. And these two teams still have all 13 games to play.
But I still think, come the final series of the St. Louis season (which is fittingly in Chicago), the Cards will be playing for a wild-card spot, not the division title.
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