DETROIT — One is among the most ferocious forces in the sport, a bona fide ace who is must-see TV. The other is a savvy tactician whose game centers on commanding his fastball, vexing hitters with his splitter and working in a refined slider.
Where Tarik Skubal is a roaring marvel, Casey Mize is rarely demonstrative on the mound. Mize’s outings don’t come with quite the same spectacle, though his splitter can be magical when it is at its best.
The No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 draft, Mize took a long road to becoming something very close to the pitcher he was initially billed to be — consistent, reliable and a consummate professional.
So while all the noise swirls around Skubal in the build-up to MLB’s Aug. 3 trade deadline, nearly all the same conversations apply to Mize. He is set to be a free agent after this season. He is pitching incredibly well, which should make him in demand.
Mize gave up one run over six innings in the Tigers’ 3-2 loss to the Royals on Saturday, and he knows the conversation. He understands all that’s hanging in the balance. Like anyone else, Mize has been watching the standings and doing the math in his head.
“I’m certainly aware of how many games we are back, but there seems to be so many teams still in the fold where it’s like, ‘Oh, so-and-so beat so-so … does that help us or not?’” Mize said. “I’m getting a little confused.”
The Tigers are in such a strange position ahead of the deadline in part because so many other teams remain in playoff contention. That’s how life goes in a weak American League and in the age of the expanded playoff. Despite Saturday’s loss, the Tigers remain far from sure-thing sellers.
In a world in which the Tigers keep Skubal and make a push for the playoffs, they would be wise to add help for a bullpen that surrendered Saturday’s lead in the late innings. However, Cot’s Contracts already projects the Tigers with a competitive-balance tax payroll of $245.9 million. Any further additions would cement the Tigers as firmly over the $244 million luxury tax threshold, which has important implications.
Casey Mize could garner some attention at the trade deadline. (Allan Dranberg / Icon Sportswire)
As it stands, both Skubal and Mize are eligible for qualifying offers at the end of the season if they remain in Detroit. If they were to decline those offers and sign lucrative deals in free agency, the Tigers would receive compensatory draft picks after the first round.
But as MLB Trade Rumors noted earlier this week, those draft picks fall to after the fourth round in the event the Tigers exceed the luxury tax.
So, with money in mind, could the Tigers keep Skubal but trade Mize? Could they keep both, bank on those draft picks and trade Jack Flaherty, Kenley Jansen or Kyle Finnegan?
Or, with a few more losses, do they still proceed with a grand sell-off?
Those are the questions that hover over every game at this juncture in the season.
In some ways, Mize said this week, all the array of scenarios has made it easier to focus on the task at hand.
If the Tigers want to keep things together, they have to keep winning.
“We’re kind of on a 10-game sprint right now,” Mize said two days before his latest start. “And so it takes tons of focus on what we’re doing here day-to-day.”
Saturday, Mize toed the rubber at Comerica Park, and if we are to take him at his word, he gave little thought to the fact it could have been his final start in Detroit as a Tiger.
“Honestly, I was just focused on pitching and trying to get a win,” Mize said. “Came up short, which is frustrating. But no, it didn’t come up.”
Mize had left his previous outing early after both taking a ball off his hand and battling stubborn soreness in his groin. He went through his work week with little issue. He said he felt no soreness in the two days before his start. But he was also working through some mechanical tweaks in real time, trying to resolve whatever might be causing the groin tightness that has already sent him to the injured list twice this season.
Mize insists he was not dealing with any lingering effects in terms of pain. But coming off his last outing, he was far from his sharpest. His velocity was down noticeably in the first two innings. Even as his fastball ticked up later in the game, he finished with an average four-seam velocity of 92 mph — down from his usual of 93.6. His secondary pitches did not seem as sharp, either. Mize generated only four whiffs in six innings of work Saturday.
But in typical Mize fashion, he found ways to grind through his outing and give his team more than manager A.J. Hinch expected.
Mize surrendered a run in the second inning but otherwise held the Royals to a bevy of non-threatening outs in the air.
“I thought his stuff got better as the game went on,” Hinch said. “I thought his confidence grew … We were thinking five (innings), 75 pitches. He ended up giving us more than that because he was efficient in the middle of his outing.”
Although far from his most assertive performance, Mize’s numbers kept trending in the right direction Saturday. He has a 2.70 ERA this season. Even with the nagging injuries, he continues to pitch the best baseball of his career.
“I feel like my floor has risen as a pitcher,” Mize said. “Even when I’m not at my best, I can still provide some quality.”
Scouts from across the league were in attendance for Saturday’s game, a loss that sent the Tigers to four games out of a postseason spot at the conclusion of play.
Mize’s situation also highlights all the oddities surrounding the Tigers’ trade-deadline dilemma.
For now, the team seems to be canvassing all its options.