And so the Diamondbacks start their Most Crucial Season of the Series (TM, Clickbait Enterprises). Seem to have been hearing that phrase a lot lately. Certainly, for the first series after the All-Star break against the Cardinals, and then again, over the weekend in Washington. Arizona won one series and lost the other. And, guess what? Nothing much changed. Sure, we’d like to have beaten the Nationals. But considering Mitch Bratt and Kohl Drake had four (4) major-league starts between them going into Washington, and neither were expected to be part of our rotation this year, I can’t say I am exactly shocked by the outcome.
Consequently, the D-backs go into Pittsburgh with the front of their rotation ready to do battle. Or so you’d perhaps think. Though if you were looking only at the results since the break, the optics would be rather different from the first half. Each starter has appeared twice, and the worst ERA belongs to… first-half MVP, Eduardo Rodriguez, at 7.27. Small sample size applies, obviously: he has only thrown 8.2 innings, but that is also the fewest in the rotation, two turns through in the second half. While regression was expected, if E-Rod ends up pitching like the 2024-25 version in the second half of the year, it’s going to make things tough for Arizona.
Cross that when we come to it on Wednesday though. Today, it’s Merrill Kelly, who has had the best ERA post-break, at 2.70. However, his FIP is more than twice that figure at 5.41, in part because the strikeouts he got in his last couple of first-half outings have evaporated. His two starts since have been curiously similar. Each outing has been for five innings, seen Merrill throw exactly 87 pitches, allow six base-runners, one home-run (a solo shot), and get three strikeouts. Guess we know what to expect from him today. As long as the result is more like the A’s game (15-5 win) than the Cardinals (4-5 loss), I’ll be fine with that.