In 2024, the Cubs had a good 44-37 record at Wrigley Field. But they scored just 319 runs there — 3.94 per game. Team pitching was also good at Wrigley last year, as they allowed just 276 runs, or 3.41 per game. That would have been an expected record of 46-35, so they were pretty close.

On the road, though, the Cubs were an offensive juggernaut. They scored over 100 runs more on the road than at home, 417, or 5.15 per game, and allowed 393, or 4.85 per game. That gives a W/L expected record of 43-37, but the team fell short of that, going 39-42 away from Wrigley Field. They also hit more home runs on the road (92) than at Wrigley (78), and the 2024 Cubs pitching staff allowed 75 home runs at Wrigley, 106 on the road.

Obviously there’s a point to me telling you all this, and the point is: It’s happening again.

The Cubs have outscored opponents 156-117 in 29 games at Wrigley Field this year. (I am excluding the two “home” games at the Tokyo Dome from this analysis.) In those 29 games the Cubs are 20-9, which is excellent. It’s also two games better than the expected record (based on runs scored/allowed) of 18-11. They have averaged 5.38 runs per game at Wrigley and allowed 4.03.

On the road in 2025, once again the Cubs have been significantly better in run scoring. They’ve scored 181 runs in 28 road games (6.46 per game) and allowed 117 (4.18 per game). Their 17-11 record away from Wrigley is very good, but by runs scored/allowed their expected record should be even better, 20-8.

And the home run difference is even greater this year. In those 28 road games the Cubs have hit 54 home runs (and allowed just 29). At Wrigley Field in 2025, the Cubs have hit just 26 home runs (and allowed 38).

The weather has been a culprit, as it was pretty much all of last year. I looked at weather conditions for the 29 games played so far at Wrigley, in a Chicago spring that can be characterized as “cooler than usual.” The average game time temperature for the 29 games is 55 degrees, which isn’t terrible, but 19 of the 29 games had a game time temp of 59 or lower, and nine were 49 or lower. Only 10 games had a game time temp over 60, and just four over 70.

And the Wrigley winds? Blowing in 23 times, out to left or center four times, out to right twice.

Will this get better as the weather warms up? Presumably, although it never really did last year, as shown by the numbers above.

There’s one more thing I’d like to share with you on this topic:

There’s more drag on the ball this year than any year in the statcast era, according to MLB’s own numbers. More drag means less distance on batted balls, and equally-well-hit balls are indeed not traveling as far this March-May as in past seasons. https://t.co/BF2o09xN8a pic.twitter.com/vUXSAsv4ay

— Eno Sarris (@enosarris) June 2, 2025

With the caveat that I haven’t looked at run scoring for any team other than the Cubs this year or examined any ballpark in detail other than Wrigley Field, that data indicates that maybe MLB is messing with the baseball yet again in 2025.

The Cubs begin a nine-game road trip Tuesday evening in Washington. They went 4-2 on their most recent road trip to Miami and Cincinnati and outscored those two teams 51-30. In the six games they homered 13 times (and allowed four home runs). In the just-completed six-game homestand, which included three against the same team they faced on the road (Reds), the Cubs went 5-1, outscoring their opponents 20-14, though they were outhomered 6-2.

I would expect Cubs bats to come out blazing on the road. They have so far this year. As always, we await developments.