Quinn Allen
• Betting Analyst
7+ years betting experience
Updated:
Aug 3, 2026 , 12:34 PM ET
• 4 min read
San Diego’s offensive profile offers value as a road underdog against Brandon Pfaadt.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. San Diego Padres center fielder Jackson Merrill (3) hits a two-run home run
The Arizona Diamondbacks sit as a -113 moneyline favorite against their NL West rivals, the San Diego Padres, tonight.Â
But with Arizona struggling at the dish and San Diego playing solid baseball, my Padres vs Diamondbacks predictions are targeting the visitors to take the series opener.Â
Read more in my MLB picks for Monday, Aug. 3.Â
Who will win Padres vs Diamondbacks today: Padres (+105)
The San Diego Padres send Michael King to the mound tonight. He hasn’t been in amazing form with a 4.27 FIP over his last four outings, but the righty has consistently limited loud contact, giving up just a 28.1% hard-hit rate during that span.Â
As for Arizona Diamondbacks righty Brandon Pfaadt, he is pitching well with a 2.77 xERA over the last month. However, Pfaadt has struggled at times at home, posting a 4.64 FIP compared to a 3.84 road rate.
He’s also coming up against a Padres offense that is in great form. San Diego has a 119 wRC+ in its last six contests, averaging five runs per game during that span.Â
I don’t expect Pfaadt to get lit up, but San Diego’s offensive profile gives them an advantage here.Â
I’ll play this pick down to -110.Â
COVERS INTEL: The Diamondbacks have posted just an 81 wRC+ over their last six games, well below their season-long 93 mark. That cold stretch gives King more margin for error despite his uneven recent FIP.
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Padres vs Diamondbacks Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 runs (+119)
The Under has a clear path tonight in Arizona. San Diego’s bullpen owns a 3.17 xERA over its last six games while giving up just 1.00 HR/9 during that span. The Diamondbacks have shown minimal power lately, posting a .112 ISO over the last week.
Arizona’s relief corps has also been steady, posting a 3.65 FIP over its last 21 2/3 frames while barely allowing any long-ball damage. While San Diego is producing runs right now, its power output remains limited. The Padres have clubbed just three homers in their last six games, and Pfaadt is not especially prone to the long ball.
Expect this one to be relatively low-scoring.
I’ll play this pick down to +100.Â
Quinn Allen’s 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 40-52, -17.63 units
Over/Under bets: 51-39, +5.21 units
Padres vs Diamondbacks weather
Outside conditions in Phoenix will remain extremely hot tonight, with temperatures still hovering around 111 degrees at first pitch before gradually falling into the low 100s by midnight. Skies should stay mostly clear with a very low chance of rain and a light breeze around 10–11 mph. However, because Chase Field is typically played with the roof closed during extreme heat, weather should have little to no impact on play.
Padres vs Diamondbacks odds
Moneyline: Padres +108 | Diamondbacks -113
Run line: Padres -1.5 (+163) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-178)
Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-127) | Under 8.5 (+122)
Padres vs Diamondbacks trend
The San Diego Padres have hit the moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.60 Units / 39% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Diamondbacks.
How to watch Padres vs Diamondbacks and game info
Location
Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
Date
Monday, August 3, 2026
First pitch
9:40 p.m. ET
TV
Padres.TV, DBacks.TV
Padres starting pitcher
Michael King
(6-7, 3.38 ERA)
Diamondbacks starting pitcher
Brandon Pfaadt
(5-1, 4.00 ERA)
Padres vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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