Good morning from Phoenix,
Casey Mize has nowhere to go but up.
Presumably.
He had the worst start of his career in his first game as a professional pitcher in a uniform not issued by the Detroit Tigers organization.
You won’t find many more accountable professional athletes in 2026 than Mize was last night, saying he was “embarrassed” and detailing what went wrong in a forthright manner.
You can read my game story (here) for how the game unraveled on him and his thoughts about it.
Pair that accountability with the fact he entered last night with a 2.70 ERA, and it seems highly likely he will bounce back when faces the Brewers next week.
“Ask me tomorrow,” he said when asked about being able dismiss the as an anomaly and move on quickly. “I’ll have a better answer for you. Tonight, it doesn’t feel like that. But after I get a good day of work in tomorrow, maybe so.”
Now, about the Padres’ offense.
While Mize was missing locations, his new teammates were missing pitches from a rookie left-hander who allowed one hit in seven innings. It was Mitch Bratt’s longest outing of the season in the major or minor leagues. The last time he went longer than five innings was almost a full year ago in Double-A.
Some insight into how Bratt baffled the Padres is also included in the game story.
Here’s something to keep you fretting: The inconsistency of the Padres’ offense, even as they have surged over the past two months.
They followed up a game in which they had 22 at-bats with runners in scoring position in a 9-4 victory by putting one runner in scoring position in the first eight innings of last night’s 10-4 loss.
It was their second dud in three games.
They scored seven runs in 5⅔ innings Tuesday against Eduardo Rodriguez, who entered that game with a 2.48 ERA and 10 wins. They have been stifled here by Brandon Pfaadt, who has been rolling lately, and Bratt, who is just beginning his career and had a 5.23 ERA in his first six starts.
It is often espoused in this newsletter that virtually every starting pitcher in the major leagues is capable of the kind of excellence Bratt exhibited. That is the respect we must have for these guys.
But even if Bratt deserves a tip of the cap, there is not room for many more performances like this. The Padres have too often not risen to the occasion against beatable pitchers.
They have been better lately. But there was a long period in which they did not do the same kind of damage against pitchers with inflated ERAs that other teams did to give those pitchers inflated ERAs.
It is difficult (and sort of silly) to rank losses. They all count the same, and every team has off nights over the course of 162 games in 187 days.
But for as bad as things were in May and June, there have not been too many games this season in which the Padres looked less competitive than they did for most of last night.
“We show up tomorrow, win a game and split the series,” said Ty France, who got the lone hit off Bratt. “It’s not over yet.”
OK. But the Padres had a chance to return home with a playoff spot in their grasp. Now they are in danger of leaving the desert further back than they have been in nearly two weeks.
Wild week
Mize did not acknowledge how abnormal the past six or seven days have been until he was asked about it a couple times following last night’s game. He explicitly said he was not making excuses.
But it should be considered that the Tigers held him out of his scheduled start on Friday, meaning he had not pitched in 11 days.
The Tigers did have him scheduled to pitch for them Tuesday if he wasn’t traded. So before he found out he was dealt to the Padres, he threw his usual 10 to 12 fastballs in the bullpen on Monday. Then he did it again Tuesday at Chase Field, because he always does so the day before a game.
“Wonky schedule, for sure,” he finally conceded.
Throw in the whirlwind of good-byes to people he had known for a long time and the logistics of meeting up with his new team, and maybe there is an explanation for how bad he was last night.
“Probably 11 days off from pitching and a little bit being out of his routine, traveling, all that kind of stuff,” Padres manager Craig Stammen said. “A lot going on. New team. He just came out and just wasn’t quite as sharp right from the beginning. He’s typically a big strike thrower, and that just wasn’t the case today. I know once he gets back in his five-day routine, he’ll be back to normal and the guy that we know we traded for.”
Robbie Ray, who starts Friday, will have had a few more days to acclimate after his switch. You can read about that in my pregame notebook from yesterday (here). Also in that notebook is the apparent good news about Nick Pivetta playing loss toss yesterday, an explanation for some lineup quirks last night and the transaction that created room for Ray on the roster.
Different perspective
Walker Buehler is still pitching — and doing so effectively on most days – in large part because he has a belief that somewhere inside him lingers the top-flight pitchers he once was.
Back before the second Tommy John surgery and the years of learning how to pitch so differently and with less power in his right arm.
But he is also rational enough to have a real understanding of who he is.
“I mean, I have a five ERA, man,” he said. “I think the standards kind of change.”
The 32-year-old right-hander has a 5.18 ERA heading into tonight’s start. The big number is what it is, sure. But it was swollen by three terrible starts in July and three rough ones at the beginning of the season.
Buehler’s value to the Padres has exceeded the $4 million he is virtually assured of making this season between his $1.5 million base salary and bonuses based on days on the active roster. Of all the desperate scrap heap pitching moves president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has ever made, Buehler is on his way to being one of the best.
He has given the Padres a chance to win the majority of time he has pitched. He was never supposed to be more than that.
“That’s my job now, right?” Buehler said after his start in Miami, in which he allowed three runs (two earned) in 5⅓ innings. I think on great delays I’ll give up less runs. … There is a part of it is you have to start going, ‘I’m not trying to throw seven shutout every day. I’m trying to enjoy team wins and take some of the performance stuff out of it a little bit.”
The Padres are 15-7 when he starts. During a swoon from May 24 to June 26 in which they were 12-17, they won four of Buehler’s six starts while he posted a 1.99 ERA.
“He’s been very reliable for us,” Stammen said. “Made every start. We can count on him for five-ish innings … and us being in the game when he comes out the game.”
Buehler has lately had his walk rate creep up and been prone to the multi-run inning. Still, the Padres have won his past four starts. (He was out after allowing four runs in two innings in the first of those.)
Buehler’s ERA is higher than the 4.93 he put up with the Red Sox and Phillies last season. But his 4.45 FIP, a metric that measures a pitcher’s performance based on outcomes in his control such as strikeouts and walks, is 1.21 points lower.
“In a lot of ways, I’m really proud of the season that I’ve had,” Buehler said. “One thing or the other seems to bite me one inning at a time. But compared to the last couple of years, I don’t feel like I’m getting my f—ing brains beat in. And largely a lot of the mistakes I’ve made are controllable. I feel really good about a lot of the things I’m doing. … I just think I’m throwing the ball well, and at some point it’ll turn. You have to kind of believe that.”
Long gone
Fernando Tatis Jr. hit his ninth home run of the season in last night’s ninth inning.
It was a beauty.
At a projected 465 feet to left-center field, it was his second-longest homer of the season. At 114.7 mph off his bat, it was his hardest-hit home run of the season and just a tick slower than his hardest-hit ball of the season, a 115.7 mph double on July 2.
Tatis is the only player in the major leagues to have two home runs travel at least 465 feet this season. His four home runs that long in his career are tied with Aaron Judge for fourth-most in the majors since 2019.
The homer was the 161st of Tatis’ career, tying him with Adrián González for third on the Padres’ all-time list behind Manny Machado (217) and Nate Colbert (163).
Fernando Tatis Jr. homers his 9th of the year!
Padres cut the lead 10-1!
Padres @ DBacks#ForTheFaithful pic.twitter.com/oOFqGZHuqE
— San Diego Strong (@PadresStrong) August 6, 2026
Tidbits
Shortly before their new starter took the mound last night, the Padres sent an email to season ticket holders announcing “a small price increase” for 2027. Jeff Sanders wrote about that (here).
Last night was the ninth time this season the Padres allowed at least six runs in an inning. That is one more time than last season and one fewer than in 2024. The most innings of six-plus runs any Padres team has allowed is 11 (1997 and ‘99).
Gage Workman’s bases-loaded double in the ninth inning gave him a career-high three RBIs. Workman is 7-for-41 (.171) this season with four doubles and two home runs.
I wrote in yesterday’s newsletter that Randy Vásquez is 24 years old. He is 27, which is something I knew. I have no idea why I made that mistake. I fear for my safety sometimes. Other times, I am impressed I have made it this far being this dumb.
All right, that’s it for me.
Talk to you tomorrow.