It took a long time, but the San Diego Padres are suddenly living up to preseason hype. Last night, they downed the MLB-best Milwaukee Brewers in a close contest, extending their winning streak to three consecutive games. Tonight, they run it back again at Petco Park at 9:40 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Brewers vs. Padres game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Brewers vs. Padres prediction, preview

After a 3-2 loss last night, the Brewers are now 15-8 since the All-Star break and 74-45 overall on the year. A +140 run differential remains extremely impressive and they’re clearly a great baseball team, but the Padres may be able to give them some trouble again. San Diego is now 63-57 with a -9 differential, but it’s the play since the break that stands out – the group is 15-9 over this span with a red-hot offense that’s finally living up to its potential.

LHP Kyle Harrison (9-2) starts for Milwaukee here. The 24-year-old carries a nice 2.84 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP into this outing, but the rate stats aren’t even the most impressive aspect of his production. Harrison boasts a stellar 31.1% K% with 111 strikeouts in 88.2 IP, also logging a low BB% of just 5.9%. The bullpen ranks fourth in ERA at 3.48 with a 1.25 WHIP and a 15.3% K-BB%.

For San Diego, RHP Walker Buehler (6-5) draws the start tonight. His ERA has ballooned to 5.07 with a 1.46 WHIP, and he has 95 strikeouts over 108.1 IP. The numbers aren’t impressive by any stretch, nor is a 20.1% K% and a 9.5% BB%. However, he had an excellent stretch back in June and has allowed two or fewer earned runs in three of his last four starts. The Padres’ relievers have a 3.63 ERA that ranks fifth, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 15.3% K-BB%.

We talked about the bats in yesterday’s preview, but let’s refresh here. Milwaukee ranks seventh in OPS this year at .734 and has been one of the MLB’s highest-scoring clubs with 4.96 runs per game, doing so via small ball. The Brew Crew are only 25th in ISO at .145 and their 110 homers are the fewest of any club. They get an appetizing matchup as well, slashing .258/.340/.411 for a .758 OPS against right-handers.

As for the Padres, they’re hot as can be – we’re talking about a slash line of .277/.351/.445 with an OPS of .796 that ranks fourth since the All-Star break, producing 5.33 runs per game over this sample. Have they captured lightning in a bottle? Perhaps. On the full campaign, they’re just 24th in OPS (.698), 23rd in ISO (.149), and 20th in homers (130). The slash against left-handers? It’s .240/.307/.365 for a paltry .672 OPS. That may prove problematic.

Brewers vs. Padres pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Brewers as a -122 Moneyline favorite on the road this evening, while the Padres enter as +114 underdogs to win at home. The run total is set at 7.5.

We cashed the under on seven runs last night by a fair margin, and tonight, I’m going to be hammering over 2.5 earned runs for Buehler with glee. While he’s been good in August so far with just four earned runs allowed across his two starts, he made it just 4.1 and 4.0 innings in those two games and gave up three and one earned run. In July, he conceded three or more in four of his five outings with a 9.82 ERA. Woof. He tends to be a smidge hit-happy with a 9.39 H/9 ratio, which plays in the favor of the Brewers’ style, as does the 9.5% BB%.

Given his track record and the ERA, as well as the strengths of Milwaukee’s lineup, I do think he goes over 2.5 earned runs tonight. The plus value looks appealing, so that’s the direction I recommend going here.

Best bet: Walker Buehler over 2.5 earned runs allowed (+129)