Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Paul Skenes is having the worst stretch of his big-league career. After dominating right out of the gate in 2024, winning the National League Rookie of the Year award and then his first NL Cy Young last season, he has had his first real stretch of looking human.

In July, Skenes owned a 6.25 ERA across six starts, by far the worst month of his career. His ERA now sits at 3.88 in 25 appearances.

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During Tuesday’s start against the Miami Marlins, Skenes lasted just five innings. He was excellent in terms of run prevention, allowing just one blemish in the form of a solo home run to Esteury Ruiz while striking out four and walking one.

However, he still left the game early after throwing just 65 pitches before turning it over to the bullpen. There are three reasons why that early exit is concerning.

Paul Skenes threw just 65 pitches in five innings tonight against the Marlins, allowing one earned run while striking out four, walking one and allowing five hits

He never reached 97 MPH on any pitch pic.twitter.com/MNufGwO7Ut

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) August 12, 2026

The first is his velocity. Skenes’ fastball has decreased in average velocity every season since his rookie year, according to Statcast’s Baseball Savant. He now averages 96.8 mph on his fastball, down from 98.8 mph in 2024. For a pitcher whose entire arsenal is built around an elite fastball, that two-mile-per-hour drop is a meaningful and worrying trend.

The second is the pitch count. Leaving after just 65 pitches in a five-inning outing suggests something is not right physically. A pitcher of Skenes’ caliber should be capable of going deeper into games, and consistently short outings point toward arm fatigue rather than simply managing his workload.

The third is the timing. The Pirates are running out of time to make a push for the final NL wild card spot, and they desperately need Skenes to be at his best over the final weeks of the season. Getting shortened outings from their ace at the most important stretch of the year is a major problem for a team that has no margin for error.

There are still reasons to be optimistic. Skenes has continued to strike out hitters at an elite rate and his talent is undeniable. But heading into 2027, he may need to prioritize his conditioning to better withstand a full 162-game season.

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