I’m going to let you in on a little secret – the Baltimore Orioles aren’t going to go on many (any?) tears where they win seven out of 10 games.

I know the billionaire who owns them made it sound so simple with his cavalier approach before the trade deadline and between that and his hyping of baseball failure Mike Elias as a winning GM you really have to wonder about how untethered to baseball reality David Rubenstein really is. But ignore everything he and Elias have said and just focus on what we know – the Orioles are a bottom eight team in baseball since June 21, 2024 with a 175-196 record; they are one of the worst teams in a terribly-tepid American League this season.

We are over 120 games into this season, and there is nothing truly playoff quality about this outfit.

They couldn’t tear off seven in 10 in those fleeting periods where everything went their way, and as they plod through a brutal 10-game road trip there is even more reason for concern now than there was at the deadline. A starting rotation that was producing ridiculously beyond expectations has regressed as the innings have mounted, this club is systemically unable to engender any sort of momentum, the manager is a pedestrian along for the ride and they are a particularly brutal outfit on the road … and this current trip ain’t the last grueling one they’ll face.

They begin a four-game series against Tampa tomorrow – a team that has absolutely owned them under Elias’s reign – with the Rays running away with the American League pennant and it stands to reason that by the time the O’s get back to Baltimore even their most delusional fanboy will see what Elias hath wrought again. The Elias Way rages on, and it makes quality baseball impossible.

Here’s a reminder why they are cooked, and that the people in charge just want to gaslight you into buying tickets for this product.

No Gas

There were 114 instances this season where an MLB team won four or more games in a row this season entering play Wednesday. The Orioles have accounted for one of them. One.

And that was bookended around the All-Star break and included the woeful Royals coming to Baltimore. They O’s ran off seven in a row and beyond that can’t post a series sweep more than once every few months, let alone get on a real heater.

And that’s super important now, because they are running out of games and at 58-63 it’s going to take them going on several significant streaks to do what’s necessary to make the playoffs even in the year of the fraud in the AL.

This team plays listless and lifeless ball until the seventh inning far too often to get hot, and when you can’t field and provide no value at large on the base paths, and need homers to score, it’s hard to sustain much in a positive direction.

Oh, and when you are tied for the fewest one-run wins in MLB (10-18) it tends to make momentum fleeting, too.

The Schedule

This weekend in Tampa will probably break them pretty good. Even if it doesn’t, they have to go home to host the Yankees who are trying to make a run at the Rays. And then they host the Rays. But okay at least that’s at Camden Yards.

They still have another legit West Coast swing – a nine game trek from St. Louis to Sacramento to Colorado. Yeah, some of those teams stink, but the Orioles are one of the worst in MLB on the road (26-33). Oh and Boston and Cleveland, with their elite pitching, come to Baltimore after that.

Good luck.

Rotation Regression

From early June through July this was a top 10 rotation. But Elias himself knows this isn’t a good team, he added nothing to it, and these starters will hit the wall.

Kyle Bradish, the rare player who got a real contract around here, hadn’t thrown even 40 innings in either of the past two seasons. He’s now at 127 innings and he’s never logged 170 in a season. He’s been wobbly lately, not unexpected in his first full season coming off Tommy John. They best tread lightly.

Trevor Rogers is prone to losing his confidence, he has massive ebbs and flows and this is the first full season in his entire career he’s spent entirely in MLB (not even needing a rehab start or anything). He seems to be running out of some gas after pushing his velo up this summer. He also has a contract playing on his mind, and he’s sounded pretty needy talking about it. I suspect he tails off and him not wanting to be on a real contender speaks volumes about why he should have been dealt.

Shane Baz had a 15-game stretch where he has a 2.94 ERA despite getting no run support. You think that’s going to continue as this team limps down the stretch?

Brandon Young has been an amazing success story but he has thrown more innings than ever before in his life. Elias, already looking silly for signing Chris Bassitt in the first place, seems intent on jamming the broken 36-year-old down your throat after a lengthy IL stint, and that won’t be pretty.

But, hey, Dean Kremer’s looking like Cy Young since they shipped him to Minnesota for an 18-year-old. So there’s that.

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