We’ve got afternoon baseball at Wrigley Field on Saturday, as the Chicago Cubs continue their three-game series with the St. Louis Cardinals. 

The Cubs (72–51, 2nd NL Central) struck first with a 3–0 victory in Friday’s opener, their ninth win in their last 11 games. The Cardinals (61–61, 3rd NL Central) have taken seven of their last 11 contests and will look to settle the score with their division rival, against whom they’ve slipped to 5–6 in 2026.

Looking at the pitching probables, we’ve got St. Louis right-hander Michael McGreevy (4–9, 3.64 ERA) taking on Chicago southpaw Matthew Boyd (8–1, 3.50 ERA). 

First pitch is at 2:20 p.m. ET. The Cubs enter as 1.5-run home favorites with -181 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Cardinals are +149 underdogs, with the game total set at O/U nine runs.

Cardinals vs. Cubs Preview

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals have course-corrected following a brutal start to the second half. They’ve won seven of their last 11 games — now 11–16 since the All-Star break — and find themselves 3.5 games out of a Wild Card spot with 40 contests remaining. 

The offense has remained extremely unlucky since the break, ranking 25th in wRC+ and wOBA but sixth in xwOBA. First baseman Alec Burleson is seemingly the only player delivering steady production at the plate, hitting .327 with a .919 OPS and four homers during that stretch. His teammates, including Jordan Walker and JJ Wetherholt, have been battling for consistency.

St. Louis’ mediocre pitching staff, meanwhile, continues to benefit from the club’s lockdown defense. Saturday’s starter, Michael McGreevy, is perhaps the prime example. The young right-hander, 26, holds a 3.64 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP through 23 starts (126 IP) this year. However, his 5.69 xERA ranks second-to-last among qualified starters. Facing the Cubs on July 28, he coughed up a season-high seven earned runs over 1.2 innings (!) en route to a 10–2 curb-stomp.

Chicago Cubs

All is well in the north side of Chicago. The Cubs have gone a blistering 18–9 since the All-Star break — third-best in MLB — and hold a comfortable 6.5-game cushion for the top Wild Card spot with 39 to play.

Chicago’s potent offense has continued firing on all cylinders in the second half. While there has been some considerable batted-ball luck — the team owns the sport’s highest BABIP since the break — the Cubs are getting superstar-level production out of multiple spots in the order. Seiya Suzuki has remained a dominant power threat, while Alex Bregman is starting to deliver returns on his five-year, $175 million contract. Oh, and Pete Crow-Armstrong might just be the best player in baseball. 

Similarly to St. Louis, Chicago’s pitching staff has benefited from its MLB-best defense, anchored by PCA out in center field. Since the All-Star break, the Cubs rank fourth in ERA compared to 22nd in xERA. The club has done a great job backing up Matthew Boyd, who enters Saturday with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP across 14 starts in 2026 — underscored by a 4.69 xERA and below-average swing-and-miss numbers. Still, the Cubs have won nine of their last 10 games with the southpaw on the mound. That lone loss came against the Cardinals on July 29, though Boyd held them scoreless through seven innings.

Cardinals vs. Cubs Pick, Best Bet

Let’s not overcomplicate this. We could spend hours examining the underlying data about the Cardinals’ unlucky offense or both team’s protected pitching staffs. While still valuable insights, the fact of the matter is that the Cubs are a nightmare matchup for any team right now, bolstered by arguably the most potent offense in baseball. Given Saturday’s pitching matchup — a mercurial youngster facing a reliable veteran — it seems wise to back the Cubs to secure the series victory at Wrigley Field. 

Best Bet: Chicago Cubs Moneyline (-181)