Texas Rangers second baseman Nicky Lopez heads to the batters circle during the ninth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Globe Life Field in Arlington, August 8, 2026.

Texas Rangers second baseman Nicky Lopez heads to the batters circle during the ninth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Globe Life Field in Arlington, August 8, 2026.

Tom Fox/The Dallas Morning News

WEST SACRAMENTO, Calif. — If anyone understands belief, it’s Joc Pederson, who remained steadfast in own convictions that he’d have a bounce-back season in his second year with the Rangers even if it started off as poorly as the first. 

“I mean, last year, I was a non-usable player,” Pederson said with a chuckle. “If I didn’t believe in myself, I couldn’t have gotten back to where I am …  and it just shows if you show some belief, and show some confidence in [players], the talent overcomes it.”

Pederson — the American League’s most productive leadoff hitter this season — hardly lacks faith on an individual level. 

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Or, evidently, on a team level. 

“We’re a big league baseball team that’s going to make the playoffs,” Pederson said, “because we believe in ourselves.”

The Rangers have the seventh-best odds to make the playoffs this season, per FanGraphs, with six weeks left to play in the regular season. It’s the lowest their chances have been all season according to the website’s model, in part because the window for them to make a significant move shrinks by the day, and in part because teams who’ve built a similar resume have simply rarely qualified for the playoffs in the past. The club’s leaders remain ardent believers regardless and, despite a dismal seven-game road trip, have cited everything from the team’s previous hot streaks or baseball’s law averages to suggest that the necessary push can be made. 

They’ve got 37 games left to prove that’s the case. 

Here’s why the Rangers can — or can’t — make a playoff push this season. 

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Point: The Rangers could theoretically climb into a postseason position and gain some seperation from a crowded field with a single productive homestand. They’re only a half-of-a-game behind the Baltimore Orioles for the American League’s third Wild Card spot and are only two games behind the Houston Astros for the American League West lead. Their six-game homestand is against the fourth-place Washington Nationals and the fifth-place Los Angeles Angels, and if they win both series, they could make something shape in a division where every team has played under-.500 baseball for their last 10 games. 

“You can go on a stretch of losses,” infielder Nicky Lopez said, “but you can also go on a stretch of wins.”

Counterpoint: The Rangers haven’t shown an ability to meaningfully stack wins this season, and when provided a favorable opportunity to do so, they’ve largely failed. They’ve won four consecutive games on only four occaisions this year, have won back-to-back games only five times in the second half and are only 34-30 against teams with a under-.500 record. Their six-game win streak against the Toronto Blue Jays and Cleveland Guardians in the first half was a season high point, and their most-recent homestand vs. the San Francisco Giants and Baltimore Orioles was a success, but empty road trips against lesser opponents have made it hard to believe a run is due. 

“We haven’t gone on one yet,” Lopez said. “When is that going to happen? We don’t know, but I personally believe it’s going to, and I think we’ll like where we’re at.”

Point: The Rangers might be close to a healthy offense. If shortstop Corey Seager (who’s slashed .286/.364/.449 since his return from the injured list) and outfielder Wyatt Langford (who might’ve broken his slump this weekend) remain on the field, and if third baseman Josh Jung (who could resume some light baseball activities this week) returns from his calf strain before the months ends, the Rangers could build their best lineup in a minute.

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Those three haven’t played in a game together in the second half and haven’t started a game together since June 11. The Rangers saw what happens when their best players are healthy in Saturday’s win against the Athletics when Seager and Langford combined for five hits and each drove in a run in the same game for only the third time this season. Jung, who’s hit .294 this season, would provide an on-base threat that lengthenes the lineup. 

Coounterpoint: The rotation health is headed in the opposite direction. The Rangers placed pitcher Nathan Eovaldi on the 15-day injured list last week with a case of elbow inflammation and removed pitcher Jacob deGrom from a game with a case of tricep tightness. It appears that deGrom, who played catch Sunday, is further ahead than Eovaldi, who’s yet to throw, and seemingly on pace to avoid an injured list stint. It does underscore the narrow margins that the Rangers have to work around with a rotation led by two pitchers in their mid-to-late 30’s with a not-so-insignificant track record of injuries. 

The rotation has already been merely league average with deGrom and Eovaldi available this season, and if the Rangers need to proceed with one or both on the mend, it may become especially difficult to piece together an effective staff for a postseason push. 

Point: The Rangers showed that they could execute the little things correctly in their final two games against the Athletics this weekend. In Saturday’s win, Seager showed initiative when he went from first to third on a single for the first time this season, catcher Austin Wynns laid down a well-placed bunt to help score the team’s first run and outfielder Jarred Kelenic carded his second pinch hit run-scoring single of the week. In Sunday’s loss, catcher Elias Diaz made two sharp throws from behind the plate to record outs, and first baseman Jake Burger hustled to beat out a double-play throw to extend an inning and plate a run.

“[It takes] other things that are needed to help manufacture runs,” Rangers manager Schumaker said. “Whether it’s the bunt today, the first-to-thirds, the ball in the dirt reads … it’s the little things like that that you have to be aware of to win baseball games at this level. I don’t care who the opponent is, that has to be a part of our identity, and it’s been lost a little bit in the last week.” 

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Counterpoint: The bullpen has lost some of its buoyancy, and in close games where the little things make the most different, a leaky relief staff can nullify all of the above.

Their 5.38 ERA is the third-worst since the All-Star break and has directly taken six losses in that span. The relief staff allowed four home runs in the two losses against the Athletics this weekend. They’ve relied on rookies like Peyton Gray and Robby Ahlstrom, and while both of whom have provided serious value, neither has thrown in a playoff race before. Chase Silseth (who was acquired from the Angels before the trade deadline) and Jakob Junis (who returned from the injured list this weekend) both provide a significant level of depth, but with the pitching staff in somewhat of a flux due to rotation injuries, will that be enough to withstand regression?

Point: OK, but, the offense is due, right? Like, it has to be, right? That’s how Rangers manager Skip Schumaker sees it at least after his lineup averaged only 2.5 runs per game on the most recent road trip. It was a byproduct of team wide cold front in which only three every day players hit better than .200 on the seven-game trip and the lineup as a collective unit hit only .205. The Nationals (4.72 ERA) and the Angels (4.40 ERA) have been the fourth- and eighth-worst pitching staffs in baseball this season and should provide a necessary cushion.  

“That means they’re probably going to get hot,” Schumaker said. “I hate to say it, but there are a bunch of guys that are cold, which means, in my belief, there are a bunch of guys that are going to get hot.” 

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Counterpoint: The offense has been due for a year-and-a-half by those standards, and even on a micro level, the Angels and the Athletics are two of the worst staffs in baseball and stymied the Rangers last week. The Rangers have a .696 OPS (the fourth-worst league wide), 1,173 runs scored (the fifth-fewest) and a 96 wRC+ (the ninth-worst) since the start of last season. They have shown improvements on individual levels since then, but despite that they’ve employed three different lead hitting coaches and two different managers with different philosophies, the Rangers have proven to be nothing more than a below-average offense. 

It’s hard to mound a playoff push with that.