The Royals have lost three of four games since September started. After a hot couple of weeks to finish August, some of us were dreaming about the playoffs, but their odds are back down to 0% after a recent peak of 0.2%, so it’s hard to even dream. Tonight’s game promises to make things that much harder.
Seth Lugo is pitching for the Royals. Through the first half of the season, he had a serviceable, if not particularly good, ERA of 4.56. Since the All-Star Break, though, he has allowed 33 runs in only 49.1 innings for a 6.02 ERA. That number includes a career-worst nine runs allowed in his start earlier this week against Cleveland, and has raised his season ERA to an unsightly 5.03. This mirrors his 2025, though not to the same extreme, when he allowed a 2.67 ERA in the first half and a 7.51 ERA in the second half before going on the IL. His second halves were worse, though still good, in 2024 and 2023 as well. At this point, it must be taken as a given that Lugo wears down as the season continues. That alone would be a problem, though the pattern of extremes in the past two years makes it even worse for a team counting on him to anchor a competitive team next season while currently being set for the highest salary in 2027.
In good(?) news, the Blue Jays will start Max Scherzer. Scherzer took the loss while facing Lugo last week in Toronto; both struggled, but limited runs, though Lugo just did it a bit better. However, while Lugo was having a career-worst outing against the Guardians, Scherzer was pitching his best game of the season against the Mariners. He pitched seven shutout innings, allowed only two baserunners, and struck out ten. Overall, Scherzer has been trending up as the season has gone along, with a 3.62 ERA and 2.88 xERA over his past six starts, even with a dud against the Rays mixed in there.
Kyle Isbel gets a rare day off. Nick Loftin also gets the day off. That forces Isaac Collins to the nine-hole and sees the Royals bat four lefties in a row with six total in the lineup. Might be a sneaky good choice, knowing that the Blue Jays leaned heavily on both of their lefty relievers yesterday and might be unable or unwilling to use them today.