Chicago is electing to defer to the bullpen for today’s game. Will Venable pushed Sean Burke back, and we’ll expect Bryan Hudson to open and José Urquidy to absorb bulk innings. I understand the September choreography of it all. Minnesota, however, gets an opportunity to it feel like a consequential move. It won’t be altogether easy—beach-baller Bailey Ober’ll have to work through a bopping White Sox lineup which has plenty of powerful answers for his worst and most-frequently-thrown pitches. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Chicago White Sox and the Minnesota Twins.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Ober’s four-seamer has allowed a monstrous .533 SLG, and only generates whiffs on just 14.6% of opponent swings. He still thinks it’s good! He must, at least, because throws it 32.4% of the time. His changeup makes up another substantial chunk of his offerings—he chucks that one 34.1% of the time. His sweeper is elite—it still misses 41.4% of swings—but he throws it just 12.1% of the time. A pure out pitch. The picture I’m painting here is that the White Sox lineup will most certainly get their shots against Ober’s juiciest pitches.

Miguel Vargas, who’s slugged .571 against changeups across 46 plate appearances since August 20th is the guy who should do the most damage. He’s got a .926 OPS in that same time period, too. Murakami seems to have found his swing; he homered last night. Bad news for Ober. And Tristan Peters helps turn the bottom of the lineup over; he’s homered five times in 56 plate appearances during the same stretch.

Ober’s found something recently, so we’re betting against his baseline. He allowed one earned run in each of his last two starts, including five innings against these White Sox. For Chicago, Hudson has held right-handed hitters to a .280 slugging percentage, while Chicago’s bullpen owns a 3.70 ERA, and should keep these Twins in check. Urquidy offers Minnesota more contact: opponents have slugged .472 across his 25 innings. He has struck out just 17.5% of hitters.

Twins vs. White Sox pick, best bet

Minnesota has enough recent power to exploit that contact. Ryan Jeffers has four homers in 54 plate appearances since Aug. 20th; Kody Clemens has three in 57. Jeffers also owns an .874 OPS against right-handers, so he’ll be in top form once Urquidy replaces Hudson. Minnesota’s bullpen should keep scoring live for Chicago. Its 4.72 ERA accompanies 4.51 walks per nine innings, making even an ordinary sequence of singles potentially expensive.

The forecast calls for roughly 74 degrees and an 11 mph crosswind, offering little reason to expect weather-assisted fireworks. I prefer the more durable explanation: vulnerable fastballs, a hittable bulk arm, and Minnesota’s difficulty controlling baserunners late. At −112, I’m comfortable needing nine runs when neither team faces an uninterrupted procession of reliable arms. I expect Chicago to finish ahead, with Minnesota’s improved swings making that victory an uncomfortable undertaking.

Best bet: Over 8.5 runs (-112)

Projected score: White Sox 6, Twins 4

Best bet: White Sox vs. Twins o8.5 total runs scored (-110)

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