The Phillies went into the trade deadline with a few targets in mind.
A bat who could consistently get on base, a pair of relievers and, arguably most importantly, some starting pitching depth.
Philadelphia acquired the first two but was unable to land the latter, forcing the club to trust what it already had.
That answer wasn’t expected to be Alan Rangel or Brian Keller, a pair of minor-leaguers who had given the Phillies innings earlier in the year. It meant trusting Andrew Painter following a rough first stint in the majors.
And leaning on the right arm of their longest-tenured player.
Aaron Nola had looked much more like himself since the beginning of July, but there were reservations. Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski even admitted he was “a little” concerned about the rotation’s depth.
Whether by choice or necessity, the decision to trust what the Phillies already had looks much better a little more than a month later.
Nola offered the latest evidence Sunday at Citizens Bank Park, delivering seven innings of one-run baseball in a 5-4 loss to the Braves.
He allowed four hits, walked one and struck out five. It was his seventh consecutive start of at least five innings with three or fewer runs allowed.
“The stuff felt better right now than it did back in April, and I made a little bit better pitches today than I did that game,” Nola said. “I just tried to dial it in, take it pitch by pitch, and Stubbs caught a really good game.”
Nola’s reference to April was an important one.
The last time he faced Atlanta, the Braves tagged him for six runs on seven hits. That outing was part of a difficult opening three months in which Nola posted a 6.04 ERA, the highest among qualified starters in baseball.
Since the beginning of July, Nola has recorded a 3.26 ERA across 12 starts, the 17th-best mark in baseball over that span.
The difference goes deeper than the surface-level results.
Teams, especially earlier in the year, tried to ambush Nola on the first pitch because he does not rely on overpowering velocity. Over his first 17 starts, Nola used his knuckle curve more than 30 percent of the time on the first pitch.
Opponents hit .452 in plate appearances that ended on the first pitch, with Nola posting a 9.00 ERA in those situations.
Over his last 12 starts, he has reduced his first-pitch knuckle-curve usage by eight percentage points while increasing his changeup usage by seven percentage points.
Opponents have hit .310 in plate appearances ending on the first pitch during that stretch, with Nola recording a 3.86 ERA in those situations.
Those numbers still do not jump off the page, but they represent a massive improvement. Very few pitchers are going to produce strong results when a hitter puts the first pitch in play.
Nola also kept his pitch count under control Sunday by attacking throughout the afternoon. He generated three first-pitch outs and reached two strikes against 14 hitters.
That has been another key to his turnaround: making the final pitch.
Over his first 17 starts, opponents hit .220 against Nola with two strikes, the third-highest average allowed among qualified starters.
Over his last 12, they are hitting .177. His put-away rate, the percentage of two-strike pitches that result in a strikeout, has increased by nearly three percentage points. His chase rate has climbed by three percentage points, too.
That’s the key.
The Braves employed an aggressive approach Sunday, but when Nola got hitters where he wanted them, he finished the at-bat, whether the ball landed in Garrett Stubbs’ mitt or was put in play.
Nola’s explanation was considerably less numerical.
“Just trying to have good work weeks and trying to stay sharp with all my stuff, my delivery, and just to win counts,” Nola said. “Take it pitch by pitch, try not to get too ahead of myself and just slow the game down. But like today, early outs, they helped.”
Painter has also rewarded the Phillies’ trust since returning to the majors on July 31, posting a 3.12 ERA across seven starts.
Together, Painter and Nola have helped settle what appeared to be the greatest concern surrounding Philadelphia’s rotation at the deadline.
“It’s a long season, and obviously it’s been an up-and-down season,” Nola said. “I just needed to stick with my routine and stay consistent with it, and the belief that things can turn around. That’s just kind of what I believe throughout the year.
“You can’t focus on all the results at times because there are some things that are out of my control. But the things I can control, I try to keep sharp and focus on those.”
The Phillies’ decision looks even better when compared to the alternatives.
The eight significant starting pitchers moved at the deadline have combined for a 3.90 ERA since being traded. Nola and Painter have combined for a 2.75 ERA over that same span.
Philadelphia wanted another starter. Instead, the club has watched two pitchers already in the organization outperform the group that was available.
There’s an old saying: Sometimes the best moves you make are the ones you don’t make.