Tigers 5, Twins 4: Twins Keep It Close But Fall Short in Ryan’s Return – Twins

Box Score
Starting Pitcher: Joe Ryan — 4 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 7 K (66 Pitches, 46 Strikes, 69.7%)
Home Runs: Trevor Larnach (12)
Bottom 3 WPA: Josh Bell (-0.30), Royce Lewis (-0.17), Kaelen Culpepper (-0.17)

Win Probability Chart (Via BaseballSavant):

Joe Ryan’s rehab process was seemingly accelerated compared to original plans. Sidelined since August 4th by a glute injury, he made one minor-league start last Tuesday, throwing just three innings, and then tossed a bullpen over the weekend, at which point he was pronounced good to go for Monday’s series opener in Detroit.

The stakes were high in this one for the Twins. With their playoff odds down to 3.2% according to FanGraphs, they’ve run out of runway to get going. To reassert themselves in the race, Minnesota needed to get on a winning streak and they needed it to start now, against a team they trounced twice at home one week ago.

Ryan Jeffers, starting for an eighth consecutive game at catcher, gave the Twins an early lead with an RBI groundout in the top of the first, but Josh Bell grounded into a double play to strand a runner on third. 

In the bottom of the first, Ryan got off to an encouraging start on the mound, striking out leadoff man Colt Keith on three pitches, but gave up a game-tying home run to Kevin McGonigle in the next at-bat. Ryan ran into trouble in the second, loading the bases with one out. Detroit scored twice, on an HBP and then an errant force-out throw to the plate by Royce Lewis. 

But Ryan kept things from spiraling, retiring the next two batters to leave the bases loaded. He cruised through the next two frames before hitting a presumably pre-planned threshold and giving way to piggy-backer Connor Prielipp. Seemingly bumped into this long-relief role by Ryan’s return, Prielipp handled the final four innings and pitched well outside of a two-run homer by Riley Greene, which unfortunately proved to be the difference.

Trevor Larnach had drawn the Twins within one on a fourth-inning solo homer before Greene answered with his two-run shot in the fifth, putting the Tigers up 5-2. Minnesota would rally for a comeback bid in the sixth, with Walker Jenkins delivering a clutch two-run double to pull them within one. It was an awesome way for the rookie to snap an 0-for-16 slump.

Luke Keaschall and Brooks Lee followed with back-to-back walks, but unfortunately Kody Clemens left the bases full, taking strike three right down the pipe from Troy Melton on a 1-2 count. He was looking for a breaking ball and consequently watched a fastball sail right over the plate. 

From there the Tigers bullpen took care of business, with four relievers combining to hold Minnesota scoreless in the final 3 ⅓ innings. The Twins generated a little hope against closer Kenley Jansen in the ninth when Clemens drew a leadoff walk and Jeffers followed by driving a pitch to deep center, but unfortunately his 411-foot fly was tracked down near the wall by Max Clark. It would’ve been a home run in more than half of MLB parks, according to StatCast. From there, Bell ended the ninth inning like he ended the first: a GIDP. He leads the team with 17 and no one else has more than 10.

Their fourth loss in five games leaves the Twins at 68-76, with their postseason odds now down to 2.3%. The contention dream is all but dead. 

In a tough game like this, we can take solace in the big slump-busting hit from Jenkins, and the generally promising return to action for Ryan, whose average fastball velocity (94.0 MPH) was actually up slightly from his season norm (93.4 MPH). There was a little rust in play but he really only gave up one hard-hit ball in the outing.

Tomorrow it’ll be Dean Kremer facing off against right-hander Drew Anderson in a 5:40 PM CT start as the Twins look to even the series.

Notes:

Ryan’s first three pitches of the day clocked at 94.2, 95.2 and 95.1 MPH. It was a bit of a statement after his relatively low velo in last week’s Triple-A rehab start raised eyebrows.

Lee stole his eighth base, which is actually a shockingly high total for such a slow player. Keaschall stole his 17th base, which is less surprising. 

The Twins lineup went 1-for-10 with RISP and stranded 10 on base in the one-run loss. Another game that reeks of missed opportunity.

Postgame Interview: 

Bullpen Usage Chart: