With less than 20 games remaining in the regular season, the Houston Astros seem poised to return to the postseason after a one-year absence. The Astros have a projected 79.7 percent chance of making the playoffs by virtue of winning the AL West division, according to ESPN Analytics as of Tuesday.
And yet, the feeling of the club, which is just 73-71 with a two-game divisional lead over their rival Texas Rangers, feels bleak.
The reason is obvious to anyone following the club: the Astros have been outscored by 38 runs yet still lead a division widely viewed as mediocre and disappointing. Their expected record, based on run differential—using Bill James’ Pythagorean Winning Percentage to predict future success—is 68-76.
The current watermark for the worst record for an MLB division winner belongs to the 2005 San Diego Padres, who finished the regular season 82-80. The 1997 Astros currently have the fourth-worst record for a division winner, at 84-78. Both the Padres and the Astros were swept in their divisional round of the postseason in three games.
The Astros’ middling performance would likely land them the projected No. 3 seed against the No. 6 Cleveland Guardians, the likely second Wild Card qualifier, in the American League postseason bracket.
Unless the Astros go on a radical postseason run to the World Series, it feels likely that team owner Jim Crane has a roster and leadership overhaul on his hands. Former Astros general manager Dana Brown stepped down in August, and manager Joe Espada’s contract expires at the end of the season, with a decision on his future beyond 2026 expected soon after. In addition, the Astros decided not to renew veteran scout Russell Bove, who has over 40 years of experience and served as a special assistant to Brown, per Beisbol FR’s Francys Romero.
The Astros’ next steps are complicated. After a decade of near dominance in the division and title contention, the team’s roster is full of high-priced players, many on the wrong side of 30, and a depleted farm system that is currently ranked No. 29 by ESPN out of 30 MLB teams.
Crane, who bought the Astros in 2011, steered the club to a winning team by 2015 and to World Series champions in 2017. 2027 presents a fork in the road, as mediocrity is no longer an acceptable standard under Crane’s leadership, even if another division title banner is hung in Daikin Park for the 2026 season.