MLB Betting Expert Michael Rathburn checks out a pair of National League battles on the Wednesday evening slate, offering up his best picks and predictions.
MLB Best Bets Today: Betting Picks for Wednesday, September 16
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 Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs Best Bets and Predictions
The Braves face the Cubs at Wrigley Field, and the best betting angle targets the full-game total. Braves-Cubs Under 8 runs at -130 or better is my preferred MLB best bet.
Chicago enters as roughly a -140 home favorite behind Shota Imanaga, while Atlanta counters with right-hander JR Ritchie. The total has bounced between 7.5 and 8 depending on the sportsbook, making eight a particularly important number for this Braves vs. Cubs prediction.
Imanaga enters Wednesday 10-10 with a 3.88 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 156 strikeouts across 162.1 innings. His recent underlying numbers haven’t been as dominant, but Atlanta’s struggles against left-handed pitching create an appealing matchup.
Over the last 30 days, the Braves have produced just a 66 wRC+ against lefties in our dataset. Atlanta has hit .221 with a .275 OBP, .329 slugging percentage and .603 OPS in that split, making the Braves one of baseball’s weakest recent offenses against southpaws.
Ritchie creates more risk on the other side. The rookie is 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 53 strikeouts. Chicago has also been excellent against right-handed pitching recently, producing a 127 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
That’s why getting eight instead of 7.5 matters. A 4-3 or 5-3 final still provides protection with a push at eight, while Under 7.5 would lose.
Weather provides another reason to consider the Under. The latest Wrigley Field forecast calls for temperatures around 67-70 degrees with winds approximately 5-8 mph blowing in from center field. There is some scattered-shower risk, but the combination of cooler temperatures and an inward wind should help suppress power.
Tuesday’s series matchup produced nine runs in Atlanta’s 6-3 victory, with all six Braves runs coming via three two-run homers. Wednesday presents a different environment with Imanaga on the mound and less favorable conditions for power.
Atlanta’s poor recent numbers against lefties, Imanaga’s season-long performance and pitcher-friendly Wrigley weather make eight an attractive threshold.
Braves vs. Cubs Best Bet: Under 8 Runs (-130 or better)
Confidence: 9.1/10 | Recommended Stake: 1.0 unit
Best Bet: Braves/Cubs Under 8 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -128)
Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates Best Bets and Predictions
The Brewers face the Pirates at PNC Park, and the best betting angle is fading the Pittsburgh offense. Pirates Under 3.5 team runs at -130 or better is my preferred Brewers vs. Pirates prediction and MLB best bet.
Milwaukee sends Logan Henderson to the mound against Pittsburgh right-hander Jared Jones. Henderson enters Wednesday 10-3 with a 2.34 ERA, while the full-game total is sitting around 7.5 runs, reflecting relatively modest offensive expectations.
The strongest reason to target the Pirates team total Under is the combination of Henderson’s recent performance and Pittsburgh’s struggles against right-handed pitching.
Over the last 30 days, Henderson has posted a 1.44 ERA, 2.35 xERA and 2.58 FIP, with 8.64 strikeouts and only 1.08 walks per nine innings. That combination of run prevention and elite control makes it difficult for opponents to generate innings with multiple baserunners.
Pittsburgh has produced just an 80 wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days in our dataset, putting the Pirates near the bottom of the league in that split. Their recent game results provide additional support, though not enough to make this a trend-only wager.
Pittsburgh has scored fewer than four runs in 13 of 25 games over the last 30 days, a 52-percent rate. More recently, the Pirates have finished with three or fewer runs in six of their last 10 games.
The series opener provided another example. Pittsburgh managed only one run Tuesday as Milwaukee earned a 5-1 victory.
The primary concern comes after Henderson leaves. Milwaukee’s bullpen has recorded a 4.37 xFIP over the last 30 days, and several relievers have accumulated recent workload, creating more late-inning risk than the starting-pitching matchup suggests.
Still, Pittsburgh needs four runs to beat this wager. Henderson’s recent dominance, excellent control and the Pirates’ poor production against right-handed pitching make that a difficult threshold.
Brewers vs. Pirates Best Bet: Pittsburgh Pirates Under 3.5 Team Runs (-130 or better)
Confidence: 8.7/10 | Recommended Stake: 1.0 unit
Best Bet: Pirates Under 3.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -130)
Wednesday’s Best Bets and PredictionsBraves/Cubs Under 8 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -128)Pirates Under 3.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -130)