MLB Betting Expert Chris Toman is back for Thursday’s slate with a triple-play of picks, and he expects Detroit’s Riley Greene to be an offensive force.
Expert MLB Betting Picks for Thursday, September 17
MLB 2026 betting record: 41-51-1, -11.28 units
Thursday’s nine-game MLB schedule is loaded with teams fighting for a postseason berth, making it a great slate for fans and bettors.
I’m eyeing two moneyline picks, including an underdog, and recommending a pair of player props as part of my MLB betting predictions for Sept. 17.
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Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers Predictions and Best BetsRed Sox Moneyline (-125 BetMGM)Sonny Gray Over 5.5 strikeouts (-104 DraftKings)
I love this price on the Red Sox as they’ll be hungry to avoid a sweep and get the best matchup they’ve seen this series after facing Jacob deGrom and MacKenzie Gore the last two days.
The left-handed Gore battled through muscle spasms and recorded no strikeouts over four innings Wednesday. On Thursday, the Red Sox get another lefty who’s struggling to miss bats and work deep. And they generally hit southpaws well.
Boston ranks sixth in MLB in wRC+ vs. lefties and will get Cody Bradford for projected bulk innings after fellow southpaw Tyler Alexander opens. Bradford has recorded four strikeouts over his last three starts. He hasn’t completed more than four frames in his last two outings, so Texas will likely rely heavily on a bullpen that ranks 28th in ERA in the second half.
The Red Sox counter with Gray, who’s having a fantastic season and has put together a 2.30 ERA over his last seven outings. Texas has been mashing the ball this month as it fights for a playoff spot, but Gray gets the Rangers in a much friendlier environment than his home park, as Globe Life Field in Arlington is one of the best pitching venues in the game.
That should help Gray work deep, which is standard anyway. Gray has gone at least six innings in 15 of 17 starts since June. But there’s no value (-200 range) on that tonight, so I’m electing to take the over on his strikeout prop. The longer he’s out there, the more chances he’ll have to pile up Ks.
Gray has punched out at least five batters in five straight and gotten to that number in more than half his starts. While five doesn’t cash this prop, it demonstrates how often he’s approaching what’s needed tonight. The Rangers represent a good opportunity for him to clear this line, as they have the sixth-highest K rate this month and rank top 10 in strikeout percentage vs. righties.
Jake Bennett punched out seven in the series opener and Patrick Sandoval managed five in just 2.2 innings yesterday. Gray fanned seven Rangers when he faced Texas in June.
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Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox Predictions and Best BetsRiley Greene Over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI (-118 Caesars Sportsbook)
Greene has been obliterating the baseball since returning from injury at the start of September. In 14 games this month, Greene is slashing .368/.410/.702 with four homers, five doubles and 19 RBI.Â
He’ll enjoy a platoon advantage to start tonight’s game, and he’s done extremely well in that situation. Greene is hitting .293 vs. righties with an .895 OPS. He’s in good company with a 139 wRC+ vs. right-handers, placing just behind Junior Caminero and tied with Randy Arozarena.
Chicago is deploying Erick Fedde, who continues to fight off the regression monster and give the White Sox good innings despite no bat-missing ability (he’s in the sixth percentile for strikeout rate and third percentile in whiff rate).
Fedde walks plenty, gives up tons of contact and was demolished by left-handed batters last year. His pitch mix has changed in 2026, but his arsenal is the same, and most advanced stats don’t believe he’s pitched anywhere near as good as his 3.97 ERA indicates. The discrepancy between his ERA and FIP is the fourth-worst mark in MLB (minimum 120 innings pitched).
And Chicago is almost surely without dynamite lefty Hagen Smith, which would eliminate a possible situational matchup with Greene later in the game. Smith threw 30 pitches in relief yesterday and 26 two days before that. I expect Greene to get on and probably deliver damage, making his total bases prop at plus money a viable play as well.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Predictions and Best BetsPhillies Moneyline (+117 BetRivers)
This starting pitching matchup looks like a mismatch at first glance. But Aaron Nola hasn’t resembled the pitcher with an inflated 4.69 ERA for some time. Nola entered July with a 6.04 ERA and he hasn’t missed a single start this season, so his ERA turnaround should tell you plenty.
The veteran right-hander has allowed two runs or fewer in seven consecutive outings. He’s still struggling to keep the ball in the yard, and the free passes haven’t done him any favors. But he’s missing bats and delivering quality innings.
His fortunes actually started to turn in July and he’s been pitching his best ball of the season since. In eight outings since the start of August, Nola has put up a 2.47 ERA and a well-above-average 25.5 K%. Those numbers don’t mean everything, but they are better than what Mets starter Nolan McLean has delivered over the same timeframe.
New York has played close to Philadelphia’s pace in the second half and has been the much better offensive team of late, particularly this month, despite getting next to no production from Juan Soto since he returned from a one-month IL stay in late August. But Nola is hot and the Phillies have the third-best run differential in the second half, making this a solid price to back Philadelphia as an underdog.
At 16 games over .500, the Phillies have been this big of an underdog only once since the first week of July, and that was last week against the first-place Braves with Chris Sale pitching. Nola started that game, too, holding Atlanta to two runs over six innings in a 6-5 loss.
MLB Picks RecapRed Sox Moneyline (-125 BetMGM)Sonny Gray Over 5.5 strikeouts (-104 DraftKings)Riley Greene Over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI (-118 Caesars)Phillies Moneyline (+117 BetRivers)