The Arizona Diamondbacks (30-31) and Atlanta Braves (27-33) wrap up their 3-game series Thursday. First pitch from Truist Park is set for 12:15 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Diamondbacks vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Diamondbacks lead 2-0
After an 8-3 win on Tuesday, the Diamondbacks edged the Braves 2-1 on Wednesday night, cashing as +153 road underdogs with the Under (7.5) hitting. SP Merrill Kelly delivered a gem (7 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 8 K), improving to 6-2. Arizona got RBI singles from 2B Ketel Marte and OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr., extending their win streak to 3 games.
SP Chris Sale took a tough-luck loss Wednesday (6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 4 BB, 10 K), as the Braves managed just 3 hits. Their only run came via an RBI walk from C Drake Baldwin. Atlanta has now lost 3 straight games.
Diamondbacks at Braves projected starters
RHP Brandon Pfaadt vs. RHP Grant Holmes
Pfaadt (7-4, 5.05 ERA) is making his 13th start. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 62 1/3 innings
Last start: Loss, 0 IP, 8 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 0 K in 11-7 home defeat against Washington Nationals Saturday2025 road stats: 3-2, 5.91 ERA (32 IP, 21 ER), 1.31 WHIP, 6.8 K/9 in 6 startsLast start vs. Braves: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER (3 R), 9 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 6-4 home win April 27Career vs. Braves: 2-0, 3.57 ERA (17 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 20 H, 2 BB, 17 K in 3 starts
Holmes (3-4, 3.78 ERA) is making his 12th start and 13th appearance. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 64 1/3 innings
Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 9 K in 5-1 home defeat against Boston Red Sox Friday2025 home stats: 2-3, 2.70 ERA (40 IP, 12 ER), 34 H, 14 BB, 46 K in 7 startsOnly start vs. Diamondbacks: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 4 K in 8-7 road victory April 26
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Diamondbacks at Braves odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 11:43 p.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): Diamondbacks +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Braves -135 (bet $135 to win $100)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-185) | Braves -1.5 (+150)Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)Diamondbacks at Braves picks and predictionsPrediction
Diamondbacks 6, Braves 5
BET DIAMONDBACKS (+115).
The Diamondbacks are in position to complete the sweep Thursday afternoon and offer strong value at plus odds. Arizona has won 3 straight games, outscoring opponents 13-5 during the streak, and has taken 5 of the last 7 meetings against Atlanta. The D-backs have actually been better on the road this season, with a .248 average away from home—ranking top 10 in MLB. They’ve already seen Holmes once this year, tagging him for 6 earned runs. 3B Eugenio Suárez was especially dangerous in that matchup, hitting 3 home runs off Holmes. With that history, Suárez and the D-backs should be confident heading into this one.
Meanwhile, Atlanta has struggled during its current homestand, dropping 4 of the first 5 games. Considering recent form, head-to-head success, and favorable odds, backing Arizona to finish the sweep looks like the sharp play.
PASS.
No need to play with the run line when you’re getting plus odds with Arizona on the moneyline.
BET OVER 9 (-110).
The Over looks promising in Thursday afternoon’s matchup. It’s hit in 4 of the last 5 meetings between the Diamondbacks and Braves, and in 5 of Atlanta’s last 7 games. Pfaadt is coming off a rough outing, allowing 8 earned runs without recording an out. Expect some improvement, but runs should still come. This sets up for a back-and-forth, high-scoring game.
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