Well, the season is over. Good. It stunk.

There’s all kinds of fingerpointing going on right now about why the Cincinnati Reds stink. And they’re all probably right. Ownership is bad. And no competent person trades for Ke’Bryan Hayes. So I say, “Let them fight!”

Before I really get into this, I really, really hope we can drop all of the “the Reds can’t afford” nonsense. I’ve been arguing this for years but if the recent sale prices of MLB franchises hasn’t convinced you that the owners are lying about what they can afford, then I fear you are lost in a logical labyrinth I am incapable of solving.

Now, let’s enter a fantasy world in which the Reds are willing to do what it takes to compete next year. This isn’t going to happen, but let’s enjoy the intellectual exercise. What would it take?

First, we need to do a brief post-mortem. Everything went wrong this year. Or almost everything. It is kind of difficult to imagine a number of players not bouncing back to some extent, so that will be built into this analysis.

The Lineup

At this moment, only two spots are absolutely spoken for. Short and first. Elly De La Cruz is a superstar and Sal Stewart is good. I do want to caution some of you from overvaluing Stewart here. He’s good, but he’s not Joey Votto. He’s more Sean Casey in terms of overall value unless he takes another big step forward (which is possible). You need guys like Stewart, but first basemen are also supposed to hit, and they generally do. He doesn’t move the needle in the same way De La Cruz does.

I am going to go ahead and make my first controversial statement of the article: The Reds should keep Eugenio Suarez. Third is thin right now around the league. Hayes needs to be cut. Suarez was an average bat this year and, historically, is average-to-good at third. Meaning, if he plays third, he probably gives the Reds average production at the relatively cheap price of $16M. He was miscast as DH this year. And while it’s tempting to try to tear everything down, I’m trying to figure out where I’d keep guys if I were trying to have a good bounce back year. Suarez seems a reasonable enough choice given weakness elsewhere in the lineup.

I would also be looking to extend Tyler Stephenson. Offense is going to be at a premium on this team and while I hope Alfredo Duno is ready sooner rather than later, I’m not banking on it until it happens. And, if need be, Stephenson can be traded. Everyone always needs catching.

There’s also Spencer Steer who was pretty solid, though he still needs to hit more to be genuinely good, but got hurt again. He’ll be around and probably useful. But, ideally, he’s not a starter. He’s the utility guy who gets 450 plate appearances because of guys getting banged up.

That gives us almost half a lineup of guys who don’t need to feel embarrassed when they pick up a bat. What about the rest of the roster?

Well, right now the options at second are Matt McLain and Edwin Arroyo.

The options in the outfield and DH are Hector Rodriguez, Dane Myers, Blake Dunn, JJ Bleday, and Carlos Jorge.

Friends, that ain’t gettin’ it done.

A big problem with Cincinnati in recent years has been the “one of these guys should be decent” approach at certain positions. Sure, one of them should, and sometimes, one of them has been, but it also takes half a season to figure out which one, and by then the Reds are already out of the race. You can play this kind of game at one position. Maybe two. But the Reds keep doing it with half the roster and it needs to stop.

Also, they have pretty much nothing to trade because the farm is not good. So time to make a splash. The Reds need to sign two or three legit bats to think about competing. This is required because of the pitching, which I will get to in a minute.

If I were a sports franchise that could easily be sold for a couple of billion dollars and I wanted to justify my existence, I would go after at least two of Jazz Chisholm Jr., Ian Happ, and Randy Arozarena. Sure, someone might bust, but they all have better track records than recent acquisitions made by the Reds.

A team that’s trying to compete and be worthy of its fans should run out something like this in 2027:

C – Tyler Stephenson, Jose Trevino1B – Sal Stewart2B – Jazz Chisholm Jr.SS – Elly De La Cruz3B – Eugenio SuarezUtil IF – Matt McLain, Edwin ArroyoOF – Hector Rodriguez, JJ Bleday, Ian Happ, Dane MyersUtil – Spencer Steer

That’s 13 guys and room for someone to get banged up. This team enters spring with probably one outfield position as a true competition and every other spot spoken for. Duno is in waiting, but doesn’t have to be rushed. It’s a group that should hit plenty of homers and generally take advantage of the ballpark. It’s not a perfect lineup, but it’s probably significantly above average.

The Pitching

Well, first things first, the Reds need to sort out the pitching coach situation. I have sympathy for whatever Derek Johnson is going though, but a pitching coach is required.

Beyond that…

SP 1 – Chase BurnsSP 2 – Andrew AbbottSP 3 – Rhett LowderSP 4 – Nick LodoloSP 5 – Brandon Williamson

And that’s it. There is zero depth if they don’t bring someone in. They will have to bring in at least one starter, and they will have to hope that all of these guys can bounce back because, other than Burns, no one was good in 2026. Which, I will grant you, was shocking. But again, pitching coaches are important.

I’m keeping Abbott at the number two spot and counting on him to bounce back. The other three are going to be counted on to fill one or two other spots in the rotation.

This free agent class has one very big name pitcher and a bunch of other guys who are not inspiring. Cincinnati needs to sign a couple of them. Pick your favorites. But without Greene, they need depth and they need options who can at least keep the team in the game while the lineup hits enough home runs to pull it out.

The bullpen is … jeez … man … I dunno. Those who’ve paid attention to my writing over the years know I HATE trying to guess about relief pitchers. They are so unpredictable. The Reds probably need to spend some money here (and maybe this is a place to trade some marginal prospects for help). But the end result might be as disappointing as it was this year because relief pitchers are basically always the equivalent of leftovers that have been in the fridge for a while and you’re just kind of guessing by smell.

Conclusion

If the Reds are going to be at least interesting next year, it’s going to be as an offensive team that has enough pitching. I hate to say it, but, given that, it might be time for a full turnover in the coaching section since the current group seems to think you can win without scoring runs. Just to be clear about how I think this would work, here’s a lineup with each players career wRC+ and their 2026 wRC+.

C – Tyler Stephenson (105, 99)1B – Sal Stewart (113, 112)2B – Jazz Chisholm Jr. (108, 98)SS – Elly De La Cruz (117, 139)3B – Eugenio Suarez (112, 102)LF – Ian Happ (115, 107)CF – JJ Bleday (99, 103)RF – Hector Rodriguez (82, but he’s a baby)DH – Steer (105, 103), but also sometimes Bleday when Myers is in CF. You get the idea.

If this lineup leave you uninspired, it should not. Matt McLain got almost 500 plate appearances this year and posted a 67 wRC+. TJ Friedl, 272 and 43. Hayes, 242 and 13. Noelvi Marte 201 and 47. That’s two everyday spots of playing time that were almost automatic outs. Pulling the whole lineup up to at least average will hugely improve this team.

It will not happen, but remember, no matter what ownership says, all the real information we have says the Reds could do this easily if they wanted to. They just don’t want to.