The Cincinnati Reds have several players who had an option for the 2027 season that need to be decided on. Only one of those options, though, is solely up to the player. And that player is Emilio Pagan. He will soon be deciding whether to take a guaranteed $10,000,000 option for the 2027 season or to decline it and head into free agency.
The decision could be a big one for both the Reds and for Pagan. If he chooses free agency then Cincinnati is going to have to try and find someone else to close out games for them. For Pagan himself, it might be the last time he has to really try and cash in on a multi-year deal.
The question for Pagan probably comes down to whether he and his agent believe he can get more guaranteed money. Coming off of a 2025 season where he had a 2.88 ERA with 32 saves he was a free agent and despite very good numbers, he re-signed with Cincinnati on a short term deal for solid money. That deal included this option year we are talking about right now.
Fast forward to today and things are a bit different. Pagan’s surface level numbers were not quite as good in 2026 as they were in 2025. But after he returned from an injury in July he was dominant. In 30 games from the start of July through the end of the year he posted a 1.88 ERA with five walks and 34 strikeouts in 28.2 innings and went 19-for-19 in save opportunities.
On top of the stats we’ve also got to consider his age. He’s a year older. And while age does matter a little less for pitchers than it does for position players when it comes to the aging curve, 36-years-old isn’t exactly young. And it also means that he’s not likely going to get a deal as long as he may if he were 28. If he picks up his option then he won’t hit free agency again until he’s a year older and that probably means he’s got an even smaller chance to get multiple years on a deal he would get then.
Pagan has gotten the job done as the Reds closer. And he could probably close on some other teams, too. But he’s not a traditional closer from a stuff perspective. The top end teams are not going to be vying for his services as a closer. And that probably means they aren’t going to pay him like one, either.
With that said, could the last two years for Pagan mean he could take a little less guaranteed per year than the $10,000,000 he can get from the Reds in 2027 but get it over the next three years? That’s the kind of decision that he likely has to make. Will $10,000,000 plus whatever he can get after 2027 work better than turning down the option and trying for a larger guarantee right now.
On top of it all, too, is the looming fight over the collective bargaining agreement and what it could mean for teams, payrolls, budgets, and even the 2027 season. If something crazy were to happen and the 2027 season is wiped out, that’s money and opportunity lost for Pagan. Picking up the option would leave him with no guaranteed money following 2027. But if he hits free agency now even if 2027 is lost there’s almost no way he isn’t sitting on some guaranteed money for 2028.