Hunter Brown posted a 3.19 ERA over 20 starts in 2026, but wasn’t as dominant was he was the year before.
Jason Fochtman/Houston Chronicle
First in a series on the Houston Astros’ 2026 season, which ended with an AL West title but a sweep in the opening round of the playoffs
Rotation
No area of the Houston Astros roster received more attention last offseason than the rotation. Houston acquired five potential starters via major-league free agency or trades — Tatsuya Imai, Mike Burrows, Ryan Weiss, Nate Pearson, Kai-Wei Teng — to bolster a group that bade farewell to workhorse Framber Valdez.
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None of those five pitchers finished the season in the major-league rotation. Only one, Imai, finished it on the Astros’ active roster, a reflection of this unit’s season-long struggles.
Nineteen different pitchers started at least one game for Houston in 2026, a franchise record and a result of both injuries and ineffectiveness. Just three teams — the Reds, A’s and Rockies — compiled a higher rotation ERA than the Astros. Just six teams received fewer innings from starters.
Houston did not acquire starting help at the trade deadline, either, leaving the staff to deploy openers and callups at times down the stretch in a playoff race. There were some bright spots. Overall, though, an area that provided the backbone for past Astros contenders proved anything but.
Peter Lambert was a revelation for the Astros and a surprising anchor for the rotation as it dealt with injuries and ineffectiveness elsewhere.
Jason Fochtman/Houston Chronicle
What went right
Peter Lambert was the Astros’ most reliable starter and best story. Signed to a minor-league deal after a season in Japan, Lambert was released in March, re-signed with the Astros, joined their rotation in mid-April and went on to lead the team in innings (155⅔), wins (8) and pitcher bWAR (3.1).
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Overall, positives were sparse. Hunter Brown made two starts before missing 2½ months with a shoulder strain. Brown posted a 3.19 ERA over 20 starts, 12th among AL pitchers with at least 100 innings, but was not as consistently dominant as last year, when he placed third in AL Cy Young voting.
Spencer Arrighetti shined in May, struggled subsequently and was dealt at the trade deadline. Teng briefly helped stabilize the rotation before a drop-off. Hayden Wesneski returned from elbow surgery in July and was immediately effective, going 6-2 with a 3.25 ERA in 11 starts.
Longtime Astros staple Lance McCullers Jr. struggled in 2026 before he was traded to the Brewers during the All-Star break.
Jason Fochtman/Houston Chronicle
What went wrong
Briefly, a lot. Houston’s opening day rotation was Brown, Burrows, Cristian Javier, Imai and Lance McCullers Jr. Imai, the Astros’ marquee free-agent signing, posted a 5.83 ERA in 15 starts, lost his rotation spot and ended a rough first MLB season in a mop-up role. Burrows, their top trade acquisition, totaled a 5.99 ERA in 94⅔ innings and spent the second half on the injured list.
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Javier, the roster’s highest-paid pitcher, missed three months to a shoulder strain and had a 5.14 ERA in 63 innings. McCullers compiled a 6.86 ERA in eight starts and was traded in July to the Brewers, who released him. Few of the Astros’ replacements or stopgaps fared much better.
Weiss had a 7.62 ERA in nine outings (two starts) before a demotion to Triple-A. Ronel Blanco posted a 6.68 ERA in eight outings after returning from elbow surgery. Lambert and Brown were the only two Houston pitchers to surpass 100 innings. Astros starters posted a 4.81 ERA, led the majors in walks and recorded the sixth-fewest quality starts.
Number to note
11.2%: Walk rate compiled by Astros starters this season, highest in the majors.
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Walk rates were up league-wide early in the season as teams adjusted to the regulated ABS strike zone. For the Astros, however, walks remained a season-long problem. Their starters’ 11.2% walk rate was the highest in franchise history, per FanGraphs, and the highest mark for any team’s starters since the 1994 A’s in a strike-shortened season.
Houston’s rate was driven up by pitchers who did not make many starts. Lambert (8.9%), Burrows (8.4%) and Wesneski (8.1%) all had walk rates at or below MLB average. Imai (15.1%), Blanco (14.3%), Arrighetti (13%) and Javier (11.4%) sat well above it. But so did Brown (12.2%), who wrangled with command of his four-seam fastball for much of his season.
Astros starters walked 4.39 batters per nine innings — no other team’s starters averaged more than 3.96 — and ranked second in the majors in hit-by-pitches. It gifted opponents traffic on the basepaths, drove up pitch counts, infused outings with self-inflicted stress and is arguably the biggest issue the rotation must address going forward.
Hayden Wesneski had a strong finish to the season after making his return following Tommy John surgery.
Jason Fochtman/Houston Chronicle
Contract status
Brown, Lambert and Wesneski — who ended the season as the Astros’ top three starters — are all eligible for salary arbitration. Brown, in his second year of arb-eligibility, is projected by MLB Trade Rumors to receive a $6.8 million salary for 2027, up from $5.71 million this year. Lambert is projected to receive $4.6 million and Wesneski to receive $1.8 million.
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Burrows and Teng, who made 10 starts this season, are still in pre-arbitration years. Blanco, arb-eligible for the first time, is projected to receive $1.4 million. Javier will earn $21.4 million in the final season of his five-year, $64 million contract extension.
Imai is entering season two of a three-year, $54 million deal, which includes opt-outs after each season. The Astros hold a club option on Weiss for 2027, reportedly for $5 million with a $500,000 buyout, which they will likely decline given they designated him for assignment in June.
Ethan Pecko was a late-season call-up and showed flashes of being a future contributor to the rotation.
Jason Fochtman/Houston Chronicle
In the minors
Ethan Pecko, the Astros’ readiest pitching prospect, debuted in August and handled himself well amid a playoff race. Pecko posted a 3.93 ERA in 34⅓ innings. A hip issue limited his availability in the playoffs, but the 24-year-old positioned himself to vie for a role next spring.
Bryce Mayer continued to rise as the Astros named the right-hander their minor-league pitcher of the year for a second straight season. Mayer compiled a 3.53 ERA over 24 outings at Double- and Triple-A. Jackson Nezuh, 24, also reached Triple-A and posted a 3.58 ERA in 37â…” innings there.
James Hicks, who opened eyes at the Arizona Fall League last year, totaled a 5.14 ERA over 24 starts at Double-A. Trey Dombroski, a rare left-handed starter in Houston’s system, had a 4.41 ERA in 98 innings there. Brandon McPherson, a hard-throwing righty, had a 6.50 ERA in 62⅓ innings at Triple-A.
Tatsuya Imai’s season was marked by inconsistency and ended with him sparingly used in the bullpen.
Jason Fochtman/Houston Chronicle
Key question
What is Tatsuya Imai’s future in Houston?
The Astros signed Imai hoping he could at least fortify the middle of their rotation, if not join Brown at the front. Neither happened in 2026. Imai struggled mightily to adjust both on and off the field in his first MLB season, making it uncertain where this partnership goes from here.
Whether Imai will opt into his second season with the Astros is the first question. After their playoff exit, Imai said through an interpreter he would consult his family and agency about the decision. Opting into an $18 million salary seems likelier than re-entering free agency after a poor season, however.
If Imai returns, the Astros face having to reincorporate him into the rotation, unless they plan to pay $18 million to a reliever with no leverage experience. That figures to be a process. Trust in Imai eroded to the point that he pitched a total of 18 innings in the final two months this season.
Imai’s starts vacillated wildly. He made five in which he threw at least 5⅔ innings and allowed two or fewer runs, including the first six innings of a combined no-hitter vs. the Rangers. He made five others in which he did not finish three innings. Answers for that inconsistency were elusive, and the Astros eventually chose not to incur the risk it posed every six days.
Addressing it could still help their rotation. Brown, Lambert and Wesneski project to hold spots for the Astros next season. Beyond that, the components are less clear, as is their capacity for big additions.
Javier will be paid like an ace but owns a 4.95 ERA across 100 innings since returning from elbow surgery. Improvement from Burrows, who surrendered an .865 OPS this season, could be invaluable. Pecko and perhaps Mayer could vie for roles, and any outside acquisitions Houston makes could alter the calculus. Yet the resources already committed to Imai create an impetus to attempt to make this work.
Summary
Using a franchise-record number of starters reflected a lack of reliable options as much as injuries. Both reflected poorly on former general manager Dana Brown and his front office, whose group of offseason additions tanked. Astros starters ranked 27th of 30 teams this season in Baseball Reference WAR and 28th in FanGraphs WAR. Many of those arms are poised to return next season, but this one raised a question of how effective they can be.