Braxton Bragg, Levi Wells, and Patrick Reilly all lost significant time to injuries in 2025, leaving questions about their development and big league potential. With all three eligible for the Rule 5 Draft this winter, Baltimore could have some decisions to make about protecting them on the 40-man roster, assuming the draft even takes place amid the ongoing labor uncertainty.
Bragg, an eighth-round selection out of Dallas Baptist University back in 2023, was turning quite a few heads back in 2025. He opened the year with 16.1 scoreless innings at High-A Aberdeen, which earned him a swift promotion to Double-A Chesapeake. While he faced stiffer competition there, it did little to slow him down. Over 42.2 innings there he struck out 59 and had a 2.32 ERA. He was named the Orioles pitcher of the month for May and seemed like a budding star.
Then, the injuries came. In early June, Bragg felt forearm discomfort. He took a 10-day IL stint and then returned before suffering further discomfort. It was announced in July that Bragg had undergone Tommy John surgery, which would cost him the rest of 2025 and all of the 2026 regular season. The latest is that he has returned to the field, playing for the Peoria Javelinas in the ongoing Arizona Fall League. So far he has thrown three scoreless innings this fall.
Wells also dealt with a significant injury this year. Selected in the fourth round of that 2023 draft by the O’s, Wells had been relatively fit until this past May, when he hit the IL with what was reported as “hip discomfort” and then became “core muscle surgery.” Clearly, it was serious as it kept him shelved for the remainder of the season and, unlike the other two mentioned here, he is not on an Arizona Fall League squad.
It’s a shame because Wells may have been on his way to a big league debut this year prior to the injury. He had pitched in five games for Triple-A Norfolk in 2025, and then began 2026 right back there. Over eight games he had a ho-hum 4.50 ERA and 36 strikeouts over 36 innings, but has an arsenal that seems like a fit in any big league bullpen. Instead, he spent most of the summer on the IL and may have to settle for a Baltimore debut sometime in 2027.
Reilly rounds out this injured crew. He was a fifth-round pick of the Pirates in the 2023 draft, but came to Baltimore via a relatively rare prospect-for-prospect swap at the 2024 deadline that sent utility-man Billy Cook the other way. The Vanderbilt product was promoted to Double-A following the trade, and put together a solid two months, compiling a 3.73 ERA, 38 strikeouts, and a .194 batting average against over the final 31.1 innings of the season. He returned to the level to begin 2025, where had a 1.86 ERA over three starts before he suffered the same injury as Bragg.
Reilly needed Tommy John surgery too, went on the IL at the end of April 2025, and finally got back on the field this past June. After rehabbing in the FCL and then High-A, he returned to Double-A on July 21. Across eight starts he tossed 39.2 innings, struck out 55, and had a 3.63 ERA. You can also find him on the Peoria roster this fall. He has allowed one run over three innings in the AZFL this year.
Bragg is probably still considered the highest upside prospect in this group. MLB Pipeline ranks him 22nd in the organization, while FanGraphs places him quite a bit higher at 10th. The excitement from FanGraphs seems to be based on their belief that he projects as a backend starter, while they think that Wells and Reilly end up in the bullpen. But they also say that if Bragg had stayed healthy and pitched well throughout 2025, then he “stood a good chance of moving on to [the FanGraphs’] Top 100.” Maybe that can still happen if he returns and once again shows off his sinker, slider, and splitter combo that hitters were flailing against to begin last year.
Wells is probably second of this group due to what should be a relatively straightforward path to a big league role if/when he is healthy. He already has some Triple-A experience under his belt, can hit 100 with his fastball, and also features useful breaking ball options in his curveball and slider. He lacks a changeup, and there are concerns against left-handed hitters. That could limit his ceiling to that of a reliever, but possibly a really good one. Pipeline ranks him 23rd in the Orioles organization, while FanGraphs has him 18th.
Reilly is more of a gamble. Pipeline does not have him listed among their “Top 30” Orioles prospects, and FanGraphs has him the lowest of these three at 20th. He’s described as a “high-octane arm” that features a fastball that sits 93-95 as a starter but can touch 98, which he pairs with a hard cutter and slider along with the occasional splitter. The ceiling for him is thought to be a “five-and-dive starter…More likely, he’ll work as a mid-to-high leverage reliever.”
Considering how much time they have all missed with injury recently, it’s tough to say where they sit in their development at this point. All three of these pitchers have been brought up as starters, but that could change sometime soon. They need to prove they are healthy, that their repertoire is intact, and that they can get hitters out at the upper levels.
Normally, the Orioles would have tough decisions coming with these pitchers. All three of them are Rule 5-eligible this winter, which means the team will need to decide sometime in mid-November whether they will add them to the 40-man roster and protect them, or leave them susceptible to being selected away. But there is a very real chance that the Rule 5 draft does not take place this year due to the ongoing CBA dispute between MLB and the MLBPA. The event was cancelled in 2021, during the last lockout. In that case, the Orioles would be at no risk of losing any of them, regardless of whether they end up on the 40-man roster or not.
Bragg and Reilly are yet to pitch above Double-A. Bragg has 42.2 innings at the level, which all came back in 2025. Reilly worked 9.2 innings before his injury in ‘25, and then came back to toss 39.2 innings there in the second half of this year. The duo is playing in the Fall League to catch up on some development time they may have missed out on. Depending on how things go, they have a chance to begin 2027 in Triple-A.
Wells has already worked 36 innings at Triple-A, and there is the chance that the team converts him to a relief role at some point. So his path to the bigs should be shorter from here. It will all be about when he gets healthy and gets back up to speed. Regardless, if he stays with the organization this winter, he is probably ticketed for a return to Norfolk, where he can build himself up to being a bullpen option in Baltimore sometime in 2027.
At the moment, with a Rule 5 draft unlikely to happen, it seems like all three players will return to the Orioles organization in 2027. And all three have the potential to contribute in Baltimore someday, but their health and progress next season will go a long way toward determining just how realistic that possibility is.