Next month Major League Baseball and the Baseball Writers Association of America will announce the winners of their respective awards, and while the Red Sox don’t have any home run favorites, several standouts are expected to rank among the top vote-getters.

That should be the case for the American League Cy Young Award, which right-hander Sonny Gray is unlikely to win but should at least have a strong case for finishing among the top five.

How does Gray stack up against the league’s other top arms? Here’s a breakdown of the top AL Cy Young candidates.

Cam Schlittler, Yankees

After announcing himself onto the national stage during the 2025 postseason, Schlittler solidified his place as one of the most dominant arms in the game with a sensational 2026 season. The Walpole native is a heavy favorite to win his first Cy Young, which would make him one of a small handful of Bay State products to take home the honor — joining Tom Glavine (Billerica) and Steve Bedrosian (Methuen).

Schlittler’s case is close to air tight. He led all qualifying AL starters with a 1.95 ERA and 7.0 Wins Above Replacement, while ranking second in innings pitched (193 2/3) and tied for second in strikeouts (239). He also finished top-five in all of the major rate statistics, including second in walks and hits per innings pitched (0.919) and fourth in strikeouts per nine innings (11.107).

Dylan Cease, Blue Jays

While Schlittler separated himself from the pack by the end, Cease was running neck-and-neck for a while and put together a brilliant debut season in Toronto.

On a per inning basis, nobody allowed fewer hits and struck out batters at a higher rate than Cease. The Blue Jays right-hander led the AL in hits (5.751) and strikeouts (12.728) per nine innings, and he also tied for second in total strikeouts (239) with Schlittler despite pitching 24 2/3 fewer innings (169 overall). His 2.40 ERA ranked second in the AL to Schlittler and his 5.5 WAR ranked third among AL starters.

Sonny Gray, Red Sox

So if Schlittler and Cease are the clear top two, how does Gray stack up against everyone else? Does he have a case to finish as the third finalist?

Gray’s numbers are strong across the board, but his candidacy leans somewhat old school. His 18 wins and .783 win percentage led the AL, which in another era might have made him the favorite to win but today probably won’t move the needle too much one way or the other. Gray’s 2.72 ERA ranked fifth in the league and his 4.3 WAR was sixth among starters, but he finished outside the top-10 in innings pitched (169) and his 149 strikeouts was a notable drop-off from his back-to-back 200-strikeout seasons in St. Louis.

Parker Messick, Guardians

Gray’s toughest competitor for the third AL Cy Young Award finalist spot will probably be Messick, who turned in one of the strongest rookie seasons by a starting pitcher in recent memory.

The left-hander ranked second among AL starters with 6.3 WAR, third in ERA (2.56) and fourth in innings pitched (186 1/3) and WHIP (1.063). He also struck out 193 batters and graded exceptionally well analytically, coming in at 99th percentile in pitching run value, according to Statcast.

Messick is also likely to finish as one of the top two vote-getters in the AL Rookie of the Year vote, though he faces stiff competition from Detroit infielder Kevin McGonigle in that race as well.

Drew Rasmussen, Rays

If the Cy Young vote took place after the postseason, then Rasmussen would have enhanced his candidacy significantly, but even setting aside his brilliant October and his role in leading Tampa Bay back to the World Series, the right-hander still enjoyed another excellent season.

After earning his first All-Star nod in 2025 following a pair of injury-plagued seasons, Rasmussen performed even better in 2026, posting a career-best 2.67 ERA (fourth in AL) and 4.7 WAR (also fourth) over 172 innings. Though he finished outside the top-10 in innings and strikeouts (174), he dominated the rate stats, leading the AL in WHIP (0.913) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (5.438) while ranking second in homers allowed per nine (0.733).