It’d another offseason so it’s another round of Steven Kwan trade rumors.
Kwan had a wild 2026 season. From Opening Day until July 1st, he put up a 72 wRC (.214/.320/.266 slashline). From July 1st to the end of the season, he put up a 158 wRC+ (.352/.445/.441 slashline). Which hitter is he? Most likely, he’s something like the 107 wRC+ he has put up as a major league hitter. That’s a valuable player, but his value is always going to be volatile given he has very little bat speed and raw power, and his slight frame invites injury risk concerns.
However, the biggest news about Kwan for 2026 is that he gamely offered to play centerfield and was very good there. He had 6 DRS and 6 OAA in 637 innings in centerfield. The Guardians don’t have a clear centerfield replacement for Kwan ready as of yet. Could it eventually be Aaron Walton, or Jaison Chourio, or a position change for Angel Genao, Travis Bazzana or Welbyn Francisca? All of these possibilities seem at least a year away.
Unless the Guardians have done some groundwork on a trade for a centerfielder, I suspect they will keep Kwan for 2027. If they assume something similar to the current economic system, they can revisit the potential of a trade at the deadline or offer him a qualifying offer after the season. They could also at least revisit the idea of something like a 5-year/$60M extension, but I doubt Kwan is interested in that (understandably).
The big unknown in these considerations is the lockout. If Guardians ownership is convinced they need to get some value from Kwan before he walks, I could see them trading him to avoid paying his projected arbitration salary of $11M as well as getting prospects in return. I am not opposed to this idea (intellectually -emotionally, I hate it), but, again, they need to have a clear replacement plan that is not Petey Halpin/Kahlil Watson/and a basketful of hopes.
I rank the likelihood of Kwan staying in Cleveland at about a 6.5 out of 10. If there were no lockout looming, I’d put it as an 8 out of 10. But, the Guardians have graded plenty of players at the end of their arbitration years, so it’s always going to be a possibility. I suspect Kwan is starting in centerfield when the 2027 season starts around Memorial Day (my guess), but it’ll be an anxious wait for Kwan fans until then. For me, I am fine with keeping him for 2027, extending him if he is open to something team-friendly or trading him for a solid prospect return if there is a centerfield replacement lined up. I can justify any one of those three paths, but my preference is for the option of keeping him for 2027 and letting him walk afterwards.