Texas Rangers infielder Sebastian Walcott celebrates with teammates after scoring a run during the ninth inning of a spring training game against the Milwaukee Brewers on Saturday, March 1, 2025, in Phoenix.
Smiley N. Pool/Staff Photographer
SURPRISE, Ariz. – The Rangers appear to have spent out of their Big Spender Era, which means, ready or not, it’s Farm Core time. Got kind of a whole Green Acres thing going on.
Which brings us to this question: What exactly is the state of the player development system these days?
Best we can tell it’s “healing.”
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The condition from which it’s recovering may be best described as “premature contention.”
“I would say that we’ve been in the midst of a competitive cycle at the major league level, and we have pursued aggressively major league upgrades, which has cost us a decent amount of player capital in order to pursue being competitive at the major league level,” is the very officious way GM Ross Fenstermaker put it last week while watching a handful of Rangers prospects in the Arizona Fall League. “That being said, I think between player development, scouting, and the integration between the two, we’ve done a stand-up job in terms of replenishing the system.”
Or put another way: To align with Chris Young’s vision, Rangers owner Ray Davis hesitantly invested three-quarters of a billion dollars over two winters to jump-start a dormant franchise. The idea was not to become Sugar Daddy Davis, but to buy time for the grassroots of the organization, to sprout and grow. And while the big-money vets could help lead the Rangers back into competition, a much more cost-efficient talent pipeline would be tapped to keep contention flowing.
Only problem: They struck oil too fast. The World Series run in 2023 caught everybody by surprise, necessitating a handful of trades of prospects. And chasing from behind over the next two years – in an ill-fated attempt to extend the contention window – only drained the system more.
If you go back as far as the Corey Seager and Marcus Semien signings, the Rangers have traded upwards of 30 prospects; surrendered four draft picks in the second and third round for signing free agents who had qualifying offers; and had their international signing budget twice docked by $1 million.
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As the distance from 2023 grew, so too may have the desperation in trading prospects. Between the trade deadline in 2025 and the start of 2026, the Rangers traded five of their top 30 prospects (according to MLB Pipeline ranks) and their No. 1 pick from the 2025 draft. In a year, they skimmed 20% off the top.
And what do they have to show for it since that magical World Series run? A .492 winning percentage (No. 18 in the majors), no playoff appearances and a farm system that is ranked in the bottom tier of overall talent, according to MLB Pipeline and Baseball America, the two most prominent publications that rank farm talent. Both had the Rangers No. 20 at the end of this season, though that was up from the mid-20s at the start of the year. Thanks, in part, to what was considered a strong draft.
Along the way, the Rangers have perhaps rushed some of their high-profile prospects. Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford both come to mind. Neither reached 10 games at Triple-A before going to the majors. While they’ve both contributed, they haven’t seemed to take the next step. Perhaps the same could be said of Kumar Rocker, who had 10 innings at Triple-A before his MLB debut.
All of that said, the farm system has yielded some productive talent with higher ceilings still, and in Sebastian Walcott, they have a prospect who could make as big an impact on any team in the majors in 2027. Walcott, the highest-ranked prospect in the Arizona Fall League, is currently No. 8 in all of the minors, according to MLB Pipeline. He could be in the top five whenever spring training arrives.
The Rangers got 16.9 WAR, according to FanGraphs, in 2026 from players who have played exclusively in the majors for them. For context, it was better than three playoff teams, including AL champ Tampa Bay, but it was also third among AL West teams behind Seattle (18) and Houston (16.9).
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“I will never be satisfied with our output until we are consistently in the playoffs in the postseason with a large contingent of homegrown-developed players,” said Fenstermaker, who oversees player development. “This year, we were a day away, with over half of our roster being supplemented by players that we’ve internally developed. We’ve traded a lot of players, but we’ve also been able to preserve impact players that give us a chance to compete at the major league level. And by not trading at the major league level, we were able to close the gap at the upper levels a bit.
“Is it perfect? Absolutely not. It never will be. But I think that there are some positive takeaways to suggest that this is going in the right direction if we continue to advance on that front and push that further up, and that it can come in different ways.”
Along that note, MLB Pipeline projects seven of the Rangers’ top 30 prospects to make MLB debuts in 2027, including Walcott and top pitching prospect Caden Scarborough. But the top 30 also includes several pitchers who have already made their debuts, but who still fall under the “prospect” experience thresholds. Among those are Winston Santos, Emiliano Teodo and Jose Corniell. The hope is that trio, unimpressive in brief cameos, can take real steps forward in 2027. You could include relievers Robby Ahlstrom and Gavin Collyer in that group, as well, though neither made the top 30.
The point: There is talent in the system to help the Rangers improve at the major league level.
“I think we are going to provide the major league team with a healthy amount of options in 2027 that are going to be quality contributors to a playoff-caliber club,” Fenstermaker said. “I think we are closing that ‘gap year.’ These players are now bubbling up to the upper levels and are close to contributing. The exact timeline is tricky to predict for any individual, but I think we have a critical mass of players close, including some I thought would contribute earlier in their development curve.”
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The timing element to which Fenstermaker refers is critical. The Rangers brought up Carter in the 2023 playoff race despite just eight games at Triple-A. He had a remarkable month-long run on a World Series-winning team, which solidified his place for 2024. What’s become evident is that he’s struggled to hit lefties, struggled to make adjustments and has not been able to optimize his elite speed. He doesn’t reach base enough and isn’t as aggressive as the Rangers would like him to be.
Langford played only five games at Triple-A, was the story of spring training and opened the 2024 season on the big league roster. While he’s managed to carve out a modestly-better-than-league-average OPS, he, too, has struggled to quickly make adjustments with his swing.
This isn’t to suggest a return to the minors is at hand for either, but perhaps offers some insight into how the Rangers might want to consider handling Walcott, who doesn’t turn 21 until February. He’s played two games above Double-A to this point. It might behoove the Rangers to consider a little bit of polishing at Triple-A. Walcott is also in the beginning stages of learning the outfield as a potential avenue for versatility. That could take some time, too.
None of this is lost on Fenstermaker, who acknowledged the quicker timelines of past prospects, but also “won’t put limits on our players, especially our incredibly talented players.”
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“Development is ongoing,” he said. “I think 2027 is an inflection point for player development. I think, assuming they maintain health, there will be enough time and reps for guys so that when they take the step forward, it’s not a hope for success, but more of an expectation.”
The minor league system is healing. And as any doctor knows: Healing takes time.