The financials of it all will be of great importance. 

The Rangers, as the roster currently stands, are projected to field a payroll in the $170 million range next season. That figure was compiled through multiple projections, and it includes players on guaranteed deals, players eligible for arbitration and a host of pre-arbitration players. It does not include any expiring free agents or any potential external additions. 

That leaves the Rangers roughly $20 million shy of the projected payroll they operated at this season (per FanGraphs, their estimated payroll was $188 million, and per Spotrac, it was $191 million). It would also steer the Rangers clear of the league’s competitive balance tax threshold for a second consecutive season. They exceeded that threshold in three straight seasons from 2023-25 and were penalized as three-time violators for it (a 50% tax on all overages). If they do intend to spend big and reach that marker again next season, their books would be reset because of this season’s payroll, and they’d only be billed as a one-time violator  (a 20% tax on all overages). 

Here’s how it all breaks down: 

The Rangers have double-digit players eligible for free agency this season. Of note, designated hitter Joc Pederson, catcher Kyle Higashioka and right-handed pitcher Jakob Junis each have a mutual option written into their contracts for next season. This means that both the player and the team need to agree to exercise the clause for another season at a pre-designated rate. 

The Rangers only have five post-arbitration players signed to big league deals next season, but of that group, four are due to earn north of $20 million next year. 

The Rangers have 10 players eligible for arbitration this winter, and per multiple estimates, it could be a costly group. Their selection of arbitration-eligible players — those with at least three years of service time, those with two-to-three years of service time who’ve met certain specifications and those who haven’t yet qualified for free agency — are due anywhere from a collective $19.6 million raise (per MLB Trade Rumors’ projections) to a $27.3 million raise (per Baseball Reference’s projections). 

It should be noted that the Rangers haven’t gone to an arbitration hearing since 2000 and traditionally reach agreements with eligible players before that period. The deadline to non-tender eligible players (which the Rangers did with outfielder Adolis García and catcher Jonah Heim last winter) is Nov. 20. The deadline to exchange arbitration figures is Jan. 8, though like everything else this winter, the ongoing labor strife might likely impact this. 

The Rangers reached deals with four eligible players before arbitration last winter and non-tendered another four. 

These players are not yet eligible for arbitration or free agency because of service time restrictions. Teams can choose whether or not to renew a pre-arbitration player’s salary at close to the league minimum rate. Those in this group have limited leverage to negotiate but cannot have their salaries reduced by more than 20% of what it was the season prior. 

This pool includes any player not listed in the above section, like right-handed pitchers Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker, or infielder Justin Foscue. Per Baseball Reference, the Rangers are projected to spend $10.6 million on pre-arbitration players, though this is only an estimate.